Blue Jays MiLB Notebook

A weekly look around the Toronto farm system

March 25, 2023

 

 

The recently completed WBC, a post about an underrated reliever, thoughts on big league spring training from one of our favourite prospects, BA’s latest mock draft, Bowden Francis, Devonte Brown, and more in this edition.

The WBC That Was

The US-Japan final was easily the most dramatic ending to a game these eyes have ever seen. I would compare it to Carlton Fisk’s game-winning Game Six HR in the ‘75 Series….but I was but a wisp of a lad, and was off to bed long before Fisk’s blast straddled the LF line before hitting the foul pole to give the Sox the W in the back-and-forth affair.

I can’t recall a time when the two greatest players of their generation met in the final AB of a winner-take-all game. The advantage was obviously all Ohtani’s, given that Trout had never faced him before, but still….

Was it the greatest game of all time? That’s really hard to say, and the recency effect is likely why so many people claimed it was moments after the game finished. I’d put Joe Carter’s blast to give the Blue Jays a championship in a wild one over the Phillies in ‘93 over it. Pirates fans might have something to say about Bill Mazeroski’s HR in 1960. The 1912 series was a marvellous, tension-filled 8-game set (one was called a tie after being halted by darkness, the tradition in the era before night baseball, and no - I did not see it live) between the Red Sox and the Giants. Baseball historian John Thorn wrote a beautiful account of the series through the eyes of Smoky Joe Wood, who outduelled legendary Christy Mathewson in 10 innings for the champion Sox. Wood relayed his memories of the Series almost 70 years later to Thorn as they watched a pair of highly touted college pitchers (Frank Viola and Ron Darling) duel in 10 innings in a NCAA regional tilt.

I would certainly say this was the greatest ending to a game I’ve ever seen.

Evans’ comments were certainly poignant, given that the former Dodgers’ GM, then serving as the Blue Jays Director of Pacific Rim Scouting, was one of the first MLB scouts to have eyes on Ohtani. Evans helped the Blue Jays cultivate a strong relationship with the Japanese prodigy in the days approaching his NPB posting. But when Mark Shapiro took over baseball operations in Toronto, the club’s efforts seemed to cool. As we sat in his office one fall day in 2017, I was surprised to hear Shapiro say he didn’t think Ohtani would sign with the Jays. That was a sentiment I didn’t necessarily disagree with, but it did make me wonder why the club went to all that effort. Years later, a source in the organization, speaking off the record, told me that they thought Ohtani might have actually signed if Alex Anthopolous had stayed in the front office.

Imagine Ohtani with this current group of Blue Jays players, many of whom are just reaching their prime. Oh, well. At least we don’t live in Western Pennsylvania.

Jimmy Burnette

The lefty reliever led the system (for pitchers with more than 50 IP) in K/9 last season with just over 15/9. With the depth of relief arms the Blue Jays are building in the system, perhaps Burnette is a notch below the likes of Jackson Rees, Brandon Eisert, Adrian Hernandez, and Hayden Juenger, but a strong start (likely at AAA, depending on numbers) might help him elbow his way into the picture.

Our good friend Niall O’Donohoe over at Cs+ has a great interview with Burnette here.

Jimmy Robbins

Another southpaw who gained some attention last year was Robbins, who, coming off Tommy John surgery, pitched at three levels in 2022, finishing the year at New Hampshire. A source in the farm department last fall didn’t think that Robbins was quite at the level to garner an invite to spring training, but lo and behold, he did receive one. Robbins acquitted himself well, pitching three scoreless innings over two outings, fanning four.

I asked Robbins how his first big league camp was, and which player(s) made the biggest impression on him:

Big league camp was a great experience. I definitely think I got a lot out of it. Kevin Gausman was probably the person whose brain I picked the most. He was always interested in talking with me about his approach and how he’s had sustained success.

When asked what his goals are for the season, and if he’s working on anything in particular, Robbins replied:

I’m just looking to continue to build off what I did last year. I think I’m in a place now where I’m very confident in everything I’m doing and I’m ready to help the big league team when the opportunity is given.

BA Mock: Logan Warmoth All Over Again?

 Baseball America published (behind their paywall) their first 2023 mock draft. To the surprise of no one, LSU OF Dylan Crews went 1st overall, just ahead of Florida OF Wyatt Langford.

BA had a scout make his selections based on the past habits of the MLB teams involved. Given the Blue Jays preference for up-the-middle guys, he had them taking Maryland SS Matt Shaw with the 20th overall pick. His endorsement of Shaw was not exactly a ringing one:

I think he seems like a Blue Jay in some ways with the way they end up evaluating college infielders. We have seen that over the course of the last five or six years. He hasn’t met expectations on either side of the ball yet this spring. His arm hasn’t looked as strong and will be something to monitor to figure out if he can go out at shortstop or if he needs to quickly move to second base in pro ball. There are so few guys who can offer that power/speed combination in the middle infield so that was the safe harbor for him here despite the slow start.

BA has Shaw currently ranked as the 12th best draft prospect in their pre-season rankings. Shaw was the Cape Cod League MVP last summer, so there is some promise. The evaluators at Prospects Live don’t have him quite as highly (29th) ranked, suggesting a position change in the future:

Shaw does a little bit of everything well. He's a thick, twitchy middle-infielder who could certainly stick at shortstop, though some believe he could end up at second base or third base because of his shorter strides and muscular frame. Featuring above average power and a potential solid average hit tool, Shaw has impact in his bat and a mature approach. An above runner, maybe a tick more, he's got the potential to net double digit homers and stolen bases at his peak whilst developing into a Kike Hernandez type pro.

Bowden Francis

Ticketed for Buffalo’s bullpen, Francis had something of a turnaround in winter ball, and is a guy who might find himself in Toronto this season. Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet detailed how Francis used Pitching Lab technology to tweak his mechanics and bump his velo back up to 94-95. With this low arm slot and the arm-side run on his fastball, Francis could be in line for a bulk role this season.

Devonte Brown

The question I’ve been asking several of my sources is how on earth did this guy go undrafted last July. “That’s a good question,” has been the response more often than not.

As a junior in 2020, the NC State product had a breakout season, and with Patrick Bailey (taken with the 13th pick by the Giants) as a teammate, scouts and cross-checkers had plenty of opportunities to take a look at Brown, but given the COVID-shortened college season, he didn’t climb higher than 355th in BA’s rankings. BA lauded the power and strength, but there just wasn’t a big enough body of work for Brown to be considered in the 5 round draft that year:

Brown has never produced at the sort of level he was showing in 2020, so teams will have to try and decide if this was a breakout season in the works, or just a strong start to the season. Still, five home runs and six doubles are both career-bests for Brown, so there was clearly some shift in his game this season.

Brown put up decent numbers in 2021, but went undrafted once again, and returned to NC State for a fifth season. Once again, just like the previous season, Brown was nowhere to be found on BA’s Top 500. His age (Brown turned 23 just after the season) likely mitigated him being selected, along with his power-over-hit-tool, and perhaps the lack of a definite position - Brown played 3B, CF, and RF in college, and made some highlight reel plays in the outfield, but it seems as if scouts may have been divided about his defensive skills and ultimate landing spot on the diamond. I get the sense that in the past, he would have been taken early on Day Three of the draft, but with it shortened now to 20 rounds, teams have overlooked Players like Brown in favour of younger, remaining projection types.

After signing, Brown started his pro career in the Florida State League, helping to lead the D-Jays to a second-half division title and a playoff berth. He posted a .926 OPS, and showed an ability to get on base, drawing 24 walks in 102 PAs. Given his age and college experience, he may have been a little old for the level - we should start to get a better read on things when he likely starts the season with High A Vancouver.

But as Brown showed in a big league spring training game this week, his bat is loud: