Future Blue Jays Newsletter

Is it time for a re-tool, Eric Pardinho continues to roll, Adam Macko quietly keeps on pitching well, and a look at some Dunedin guys in this week’s edition.

Time to Re-Tool?

It’s hard to think that the Blue Jays are going to turn the season around - at least enough to make the playoffs. The offence has been inconsistent at best, and the pitching - thought to be a strength - has been anything but:

Is a complete rebuild necessary? No. While there are some holes in desperate need of plugging on the roster, a re-tool on the fly seems to make more sense. To that end, I would seriously consider creating room on the MLB roster for one or all of Spencer Horwitz, Orelvis Martinez, and Addison Barger. What has held management back so far is the struggles many prospects seem to have when they reach the bigs - the gap between MLB and AAA pitching is as big as I can ever remember, and I’m a guy who saw the Expos live at Jarry Park.

Horwitz has proved pretty much everything he can (short of some pop) against AAA pitching, and maybe his 17 doubles (tied for the IL lead) will lead to something. Barger could take some reps at 3rd and RF, and Orelvis continue his development and play every day like he needs to in a less pressurized environment.

There is a very good chance all three will have a rough transition to big league pitching (although with his pitch recognition skills, Horwitz should have the easiest time), but maybe the time is now to punt the season, let them continue to develop at the big league level, and focus on 2025. The question of course is whether or not the Rogers board will be in agreement. It’s not that Mark Shapiro has to run every little thing past them, but with attendance likely to fall off this year under such a rebuild, the suits will be a bit antsy, especially with the off-season renovations that likely knocked some killer moths out of the corporation’s wallet.

Is there anyone else? Not really - you could go out on a limb and see what you have in Leo Jimenez, who is out of options after next year. And letting guys come up and struggle is not without its risks - bringing a guy up before he’s truly ready can expose his faults in a manner that could hinder his development. But the club can’t keep running the current lineup out there and expecting different results.

The Pardinho Watch

Eric Pardinho had his streak of 22 consecutive hitters retired and 8 scoreless outings in a row snapped this past week, I really like how he’s coming along in this relief role.

The Blue Jays are slowly bringing him along, using him more often and sometimes in a multi-inning role. Baby steps to be sure, but Pardinho, finally healthy and free and clear of any Tommy John-related setbacks, is throwing his fastball in the mid 90s, locating all of his pitches, and dominating AA hitters.

What I really liked about his most recent outing on Saturday is how he kept his composure in the face of some command issues in his first inning of work. A year ago, a mini-meltdown would likely have ensued, but after walking two of the first three hitters he faced in the 8th, Pardinho walked off the mound, regrouped for a moment, then got the next two hitters out to end the inning. The next inning, he fanned the Yankees’ 2nd ranked prospect Spencer Jones on 3 pitches:

Anyone thinking of Pardinho as a second-half addition to the Blue Jays bullpen should possibly curb their enthusiasm. But if he continues to pitch like this, a move to Buffalo and a possible addition to the 40-man will be in his future. After the struggles Pardinho has gone through, it’s just great to see him healthy and getting guys out. He seems to have finally matured, his mechanics are clean, and he’s looking more and more like a one-day big league bullpen guy.

Holy Macko-rel

While the usual Twitter pundits deplore the state of the Blue Jays farm system, the player development staff just continues to churn out quiet success stories like Adam Macko.

What made the above performance is that it was Somerset’s second look at Macko last week, but he was even sharper in his second start. Save for one sluggish outing (against that same Somerset squad) at the beginning of the month and Macko is sporting a 2.57 ERA for the month. He’s fanned 34 hitters in 24 innings. With Ricky Tiedemann’s return still uncertain, Macko is easily the best starting prospect in the organization at the moment, a player other teams would no doubt be following closely if the Jays were buyers at the deadline.

AJA in Dunedin?

No, I’m not talking about the Steely Dan album, although as a long time fan who hated it at first it kind of grew on me. But the Dunedin Blue Jays, who have the youngest roster in the Florida State League, feature an exciting trio of outfielders in Jean Joseph (19 years old), Yhoangel (20 -say “Joe-anhel”), and Victor Arias (20).

Their numbers are not overwhelming, but the youngsters are showing plenty of promise. Joseph, promoted from Extended at the beginning of the month, flashes five-tool potential. Arias, who Dunedin broadcaster Larry Larson says scouts compares to an NFL safety, showcases his speed in the field and on the bases (he’s reached in nine straight), and Aponte, perhaps the highest-ceilinged of the three, teases with RF potential.

Of course, all three are far away from MLB-ready. Maybe we’re not talking Bell-Moseby-Barfield just yet, but these guys are awfully young. But they’ve been fun to watch, and it’s been a while since three such promising players have graced an affiliate’s outfield with their presence.

Stanifer Getting Easier to Gage

And speaking of a guy who’s still a long way off, RHP Gage Stanifer struck out a career-high 7 in 5 innings on Sunday, his third straight strong outing for Dunedin.

The 2022 19th rounder from an India HS was originally not expected to sign with Toronto, but the Blue Jays were able to get his signature on a contract fairly quickly. He didn’t pitch again that year, and spent last year in the Complex League.

At 6’3”/200, he looks every bit the part of a workhorse stater. Stanifer’s fastball tops out at just under 94 (he apparently hit 96 as a HS Senior). He has a short arm stroke from a drop and drive delivery. He hit the first batter he faced on Sunday in the head, then went on to strike out four of the next five hitters.

A 19th round pick without a ton of athleticism is not a lock to make the big leagues, but the Blue Jays have to be pleased with his progress this month. I’ll be tuning in to see his next start, that’s for certain.

One More D-Jay

Great things were expected when the Blue Jays drafted RHP Irv Carter in 5th round of the 2021 draft and talked him out of his commitment to Miami.

Three years later, and he’s still in A ball. But now he’s in a relief role, and if the first two months of this season are any indication, he should be grabbing his passport and heading to Vancouver soon. Carter has pitched four straight scoreless outings, and has been quite dominant in late inning work.

His main pitch is a slider, a true swing-and-miss offering that had Bradenton batters lunging. While his fastball is only topping out at 91-92, that slider with its tight spin and sharp break helps it play up. He starts the pitch in the strike zone to RHH, and by the time it gets to the plate it makes a sharp left turn. He locates it well and keeps most of his pitches down - hitters are hitting groundballs at a 42% rate, mostly off that pitch.

Maybe Carter would have benefitted from going to college, but he’s starting to show some of that potential he demonstrated as a high schooler.