Future Blue Jays Newsletter

A look at some prospects whose development has stalled a bit one month into the season, a salute to a longtime manager, coach, and instructor, and a chat with Dunedin Blue Jays play-by-play voice Larry Larson in this week’s edition…..

Before this train gets rolling, there’s one name I’d like to add to the list of guys trending up that I posted last week. The sky seemed the limit for Eric Pardinho in 2019. The Blue Jays top IFA from the 2017 class was one of the top-ranked arms in that’s year’s crop. After being challenged with an aggressive assignment to Bluefield of the former short-season Appy League, Pardinho had acquitted himself in seven starts for then-Single A Lansing.

But a sore elbow had bothered Pardinho since the start of the season, and he was shut down in early August as a precaution. He wouldn’t throw another pitch for almost three years. Covid-19 wiped out everyone’s 2020 minor league season, and as 2021 rolled around the elbow pain had gotten worse, and Pardinho underwent Tommy John surgery in February.

He pitched in only 3 June FCL games in 2022, and struggled for much of the season with Vancouver in 2023. When I visited the C’s in April of that year, he had just come off a disastrous first outing of the season, allowing 6 runs and walking four in just 1.2 innings. Folks around the club talked about his body language, and, well….it just wasn’t good. Put into a relief role, Pardinho had to be frustrated with his lack of progress, and it certainly showed on the mound. He finished the season with a 7.15 ERA in 35 appearances, and didn’t get into a game after September 10th as the C’s rolled to a league title.

But what a difference a year makes. His body language cleaned up, his command of the strike zone improved considerably, and perhaps clear of the setback worries that plague all Tommy John patients, Pardinho has had six consecutive scoreless innings for AA New Hampshire, fanning 14 over 8 IP. His mastery of the strike zone has been complete, complimenting a mid 90s fastball with a change and curve he can now throw for strikes in any count.

I asked New Hampshire pitching coach Joel Bonnett, who had Pardinho at Vancouver last year what the difference has been:

 I think he is a good spot and knows his stuff is really good. He is trusting his ability and building confidence. Also now being out of rehab for a while he isn’t worried about getting hurt. He’s in a really good spot right now.

As dominant as he has been, the Blue Jays are still likely going to be taking things gradually with Pardinho for the foreseeable future. He’s not closing games, but has been moved into something of an 8th inning leverage (such as it is in MiLB) role. As much as anything, his case serves to remind that not all pitchers return to their previous form a year after UCL surgery. The one thing all guys who have had that surgery have told me is that the rehab is a lonely experience, both physically and emotionally. A year ago, Pardinho was likely dealing with his own inner demons, and his command of the strike zone was nowhere to be found, as a result. It appears that he has put much - if not all - of that behind him this year.

Team Sideways

A slow start to the season doesn’t necessarily mean a player has taken a step backward in their development, but here are some guys who have stumbled out of the gate so far, and will be looking to heat up along with the weather:

Chad Dallas

Dallas turned things around in a big way last season, striking out 144 in 123 innings at two levels. He earned a promotion to AAA this season, but has pitched to a 7.16 ERA in seven starts. His most recent outing this past week was his best of the season, so perhaps he’s on the right track.

Connor Cooke

Cooke seemed on the path to the big leagues with his showing last season and during spring training, but has had trouble finding the strike zone (11 BB/12 IP) so far for Buffalo.

CJ Van Eyk

Left unprotected in the Rule 5 last fall, there were some who thought Van Eyk’s fastball would play up in a bullpen role, and a rebuilding team might take a flyer on him. But his injury history (another TJ recovery precautionary tale) likely scared away all takers, and Van Eyk opened the season at New Hampshire. Alternating between starting and pitching in a piggyback role so far, he’s sporting a bloated 8.83, much of that total inflated by a late April start in which he gave up 9 runs and only got one batter out. Van Eyk’s last two outings have been much better, his most recent (5 IP/0R/1H/6K) easily being his best to date.

Arjun Nimmala

Our good friend Larry Larson will have more to say about last year’s first round pick below, but suffice to say he’s been challenged in Single A, hitting only .154 with 42 Ks in his first 28 games. While you can’t say the Blue Jays player development staff were expecting it, they’re certainly not surprised by it, and Nimmala will continue to be in the lineup hitting cleanup and playing SS five days a week.

Alan Roden

After a splendid 2023 season, Roden is another guy who appeared to be on the cusp of a big league job. The only thing lacking in his game was some pop, and he adjusted his somewhat unique batting stance this season (lowered hands) in an attempt to get his barrel out more often. His results so far (.677 OPS, 2 HR) would indicate that he’s still getting used to the mechanical tweaks he made in the offseason.

Trent Palmer

Palmer rose steadily up the minor league ranks after being selected in the 3rd round in 2020’s truncated draft, striking out better than a batter per inning along the way, looking very much like a future 7th or 8th inning guy.

Then came a visit from the UCL fairy, who replaced Palmer’s in the summer of 2022. He has struggled in his return (see Pardinho, Eric), and has walked 15 in 16 hitters so far this year while sporting an ugly 8.10 ERA.

Kendry Rojas

The hard-throwing Cuban southpaw was a pitcher I was really hoping to see live during my trip to Vancouver last month. But soon after tossing 5 scoreless innings on April 10th, he was put on the 7-day IL.

Juaron Watts-Brown

A 2023 3rd rounder who some thought might advance quickly in a relief role, JWB has been used in a starting role for Dunedin in order to build up his arm. He too has had his struggles with walks, but went 6 innings for the first time in his most recent start. My man Larry will have a few words about him as well.

Orelvis to the Bigs?

The Blue Jays weak performance to date has had some recency-bias effect fans clamouring for Martinez’ promotion, especially after a loud week in Columbus last month.

But as Ken Rosenthal detailed in The Athletic (paywalled, but there’s a reader version for you cheapskates) how several top hitting prospects have stumbled so far this season. In essence, what it comes down to is that hitting in the minors and doing so in the bigs can be two widely different things. In MiLB, with six game series, hitters often have the advantage of seeing a pitcher two (or more times) over the course of that week - in the bigs, four games are the max. In addition, it seems like anyone who can (a) throw hard, and (b) do so usually for strikes is in the bigs - prospects just aren’t seeing high octane velo in AAA, and the transition to MLB pitching has been a struggle.

I would suspect Orelvis — who typically has needed adjustment time at each level - would struggle once elevated to the bigs. It happened to none other than Davis Schneider, who after a record-breaking debut, began to see a heavy diet of high heat. If the 0-34 streak he endured in September had happened earlier in the season, it’s highly likely he would have found himself back in Buffalo.

This, of course, is on top of Orevlis’ defence, which is a work-in-progress. Add those two factors up, and it’s understandable why he’s still in the minors, and anyone thinking he might have an impact on a team that struggles to score right away should reconsider that notion.

All the Best, Brick

One of my favourite people in the Blue Jays organization was honoured as he concluded seven decades in the game:

Dennis “Brick” Holmberg is a baseball lifer, a guy who was drafted by the Expos in 1969, but opted to go back to college for a year before signing with the Brewers. One of the friends he made along the way was minor league teammate “Stormin’” Gorman Thomas, who sent me a nice thank you email for a post I wrote about Brick at my old website a few years back (a career highlight for yours truly). So many current or former Jays passed through Bluefield, Toronto’s former Appy League affiliate during Holmberg’s time managing the short-season club.

All the best, Dennis.

Talking D-Jays with Larry Larson

Try as I might, I was unable to keep my interview with the Dunedin Blue Jays under the half hour limit my free subscription to mygoodtape.com allows me. Not to worry, I transcribed the overage by hand, so that you good readers don’t miss any of this great Blue Jays Florida State League affiliate content:

DM Fox:  First, can, just tell me about your background. When were you hired? What's your broadcasting and college background? I’m just interested so I can let my readers know. 

Larry Larson:  So, I got hired in mid-March, late-March. And then I moved down about a week later, so about a week before opening day.

DMF: That was quite the whirlwind.

LL: Yeah, it was an interesting off-season for me. I'm coming off two seasons in the Midwest League with the Beloit Sky Carp. Miam’s Marlins’  High A affiliate.  They eliminated their broadcaster position after the end of last season. I was in a tough spot because baseball is kind of my favourite sport. It's what I love to call the most. It's what I love to do. And I didn't have a job in baseball until three weeks before Opening Day.

So, it was a tough winter for me. Luckily, I had some work outside of baseball. I was doing some women's basketball with Southern Illinois University, which was a lot of fun.I went to college at Bradley University in Peoria, Illinois. Studied Sports Communication there. So, when I was in college, I broadcasted the usual college sports: baseball, softball, volleyball, women's basketball. Worked for the student newspaper. I was the men's basketball beat reporter for three years. I was an editor at the student newspaper. Then I started my own business as well that covers high school sports, which is still going today somehow. If you would have told me my sophomore year of college when me and a buddy started it up, that I'd still be going when we're three years removed from college, I probably would have called you crazy. But here we are. So, that's the college background.I'm originally from Northern Illinois, Rockford, Illinois, so just south of Beloit. About an hour and a half outside of Chicago, so I grew up a Chicago Cubs fan. That was really how I got into baseball, just watching and listening to the Cubs with my dad.

DMF:  And so here we are. I'm from a similar latitude, two hours north of Toronto. How are you finding life in Florida?

 LL:  I love it. Before I came down here, I wasn't so sure how I'd like it in terms of the weather, the humidity, the heat. Granted, knock on wood, we've gotten incredibly lucky with the weather so far this year……very lucky. Not even one rain delay yet. Hopefully that sticks.

I’m still getting used to the humidity, but outside of that, I love it. Dunedin's such a great town. I had never been here before, before I took the job, so I wasn't sure what to expect. But, man, it's beautiful, great people, very charming, small town type of feel.

DMF:  So, tell me about how the broadcasts are working. This caught me by surprise, to tell you the truth.  I knew there was a timeline by which teams, under this new agreement that the majors and minors signed together, that everybody had to come up with video. But I guess I had just missed that the D-Jays games were going to be broadcast. And obviously, that's what attracted you…..I'm sure that's what had you apply for the position. So, just tell me how that evolved and how it's going.

LL:  I don't know if we even put any sort of official announcement out there. I think there was some kind of deadline where every team had to have a video broadcast by this year. And granted, not all the teams made that deadline in the Florida State League, unfortunately.  But yeah, so when I was interviewing for the job, obviously that was a big part of it. Going through, okay, what kind of production experience do you have. So far, so good. You've watched the center field camera, the first few games. It wasn't great. We now have a new center field camera that is a little bit better. So we're still working out some kinks, for sure. It's all produced off-site….. we work with a company called Virch. They've got their logo on the score bug. And ironically enough, they're based in Wisconsin.  So our producer is clicking all the buttons from Wisconsin.

Obviously we have two camera operators here at the stadium. And then we've got a few robocams.I really like how we've been able to incorporate graphics into the broadcast. Not just on the pregame show, but kind of throughout the game. That's been pretty fun. So, yeah, it's been good. I think we're far from where we want to be in terms of where the production's at right now.  But granted, it's only the first month.  So it's still a long way to go. Yeah, I'm sure that there are bugs to work out.

DMF:  You do a really good job calling the game. I'm a guy who grew up with baseball on the radio. So even though you can see it for yourself on the screen, I lean towards somebody like yourself who's providing descriptions.   You know, the colors of the other team's uniforms, where the players are positioned, just stuff like that that I think really just informs the listener because we're limited to that center field camera or whatever camera is giving us that current shot. So who were some of your influences growing up, that you think have probably helped, you modeled yourself after in your own broadcasting? 

LL: You know, first and foremost, growing up, I listened to a ton of Pat Hughes, Radio Voice of the Cubs, who just won the Ford C. Frick Award last year.

So he was kind of the guy that really was my first broadcasting influence, I would say. Unlike most people my age, I think I really grew up listening to a ton of games on the radio rather than TV. And I would watch a fair amount on TV, so Len Kasper was kind of another one of those soundtracks of my childhood. I also watched a fair amount of White Sox games, so I would hear some Hawk Harrelson, which, you know, was always an experience. But we were also not too far from Milwaukee, so I got the chance to listen to Bob Uecker on the radio all the time, which is just a treat, still is. Just what a guy.

I actually had the chance to meet him last year in Milwaukee, coming out of an elevator, and it was the most Bob Uecker interaction maybe I could have come up with. He was coming out of the elevator, and I was going into the elevator to go downstairs. I said, “Mr. Uecker, Larry Larson, nice to meet you”. And he said, “oh, quit calling me that.” So it was something.  But, yeah, those are the names that come to mind. As I got older, Jason Benetti got the White Sox job. Listened to him a ton, I think, personality-wise. He brings it maybe the best out of anybody in baseball. I really enjoyed Dan Shulman, and miss him on the Sunday night games. John Miller is a favorite of mine in San Francisco. Had a chance to meet him at Bradley one year.I try to vary who I listen to so I can learn new things from different people in different parts of the United States and Canada and whatnot. So, yeah, those are kind of the big inspirations for me. Hughes, Uecker, Miller, Benetti, Shulman. A lot of people say I sound like Matt Vasgersian.  I get that comp on occasion.

DMF:  Well, that's a pretty good voice to be compared to.

LL: You know, another name I didn't list is Joe Davis, voice of MLB on Fox. I had a chance to meet him in Beloit one year because he went to Beloit College. He's another guy that I really enjoy listening to and had a chance to interact with. And, I mean, I definitely wouldn't be as good as I am now without people listening to some kid's tape and giving him advice. So it's helped.

DMF:  It seems like, maybe because the broadcasts are presenting this new perspective that I haven't had before, it looks like there's been more of an effort to market the D-Jays in town and it looks like the crowds, am I right, are maybe a little bit better than they've been in the past?

LL: Yeah, they have been.  Based on, obviously, this is my first season here, so I don't have much of a measuring stick, but based on what I'm told, this is our best start to the season in years, certainly since 2021. Obviously, that's kind of a big year in terms of people comparing attendance and various figures, but I've heard maybe our best start since 2017 or 2018.

DMF:  Ok, let's talk about the guy who's starting tonight, Connor O'Halloran. Enjoy him while you have him. I've written that a college pitcher from a big program should be able to dominate single-A hitters, and that looks like exactly what he's doing. But I think what it comes down to is, well, he doesn't throw all that hard. The dude knows how to pitch.

LL: Yes, he is a pitcher's pitcher. I think he gets all the comps. Jamie Moyer, you know, Greg Maddox is a strike thrower. Maybe they don't have that gas, but they can really, really locate well on the inside half, the outside half, up, down, change high levels and speeds well. I think a lot of people in pitching talk about maybe if you don't have that velocity, as long as you can change speeds, you'll be just fine, and I think Connor does that really, really well. His breaking stuff impressed me. His slider especially, really good. Opponents only hitting around .120 against his slider this year. So he just is not allowed a lot of loud contact. And like you mentioned, a college pitcher, he's polished.  He wants to go out there and win. That's the bottom line. You know, off the field, super nice guy, great interview.

DMF:  He's a Canadian, come on.

LL:  Well, exactly, of course, he’s a natural fit. So he's been great, and I've been really impressed with him, especially last week was his best start. I mean, six and two-thirds shutout, nine strikeouts against Tampa. He was dialed in. So once he gets going, I think his ceiling can be high for sure.

DMF:  I haven't looked at the standings of the Florida State League, but I know the Tampa team is maybe not as good as people thought. Is this maybe a tougher lineup that he's facing tonight? 

LL:  Yeah, you know, with Fort Myers, frankly, I'm not traveling fully with the team right now, so I haven't dove into Fort Myers really. They got off to a slow start, and they had a really rough week last week at Bradenton, I know that.Tampa has some talent, but they have just really, really been bad to open the year. So Fort Myers a little bit better, at least in terms of early season.

DMF: Okay, I was just curious about that. The next guy we have to talk about, and you guys have to protect him at all costs, is Fernando Perez. Yeah. That last start….. April was a little bit uneven, which you would expect of somebody of his age and experience at that level, but man, he just looked like such a polished young pitcher. You don't see command from somebody quite that age, and just his ability to repeat his delivery. That was just, I came away, watched that start I think Saturday morning, and I just went, wow.

LL: He's such a great story, like scouting and development-wise, like discovered from some remote place in Nicaragua, and he's been in the system for a while, but they've done a nice job of scaffolding things for him to this point.

DMF: Arjun Nimmala, you said the other day when he hit a majestic home run, that was his first one since opening weekend.  We obviously would have expected a little bit more, but, you know, when you think about it, he was the second youngest player to open the season in the league, and the Blue Jays are quite content with letting him figure things out and absorb the bumps that come along with learning, but I guess we would say that we are on a steep learning curve this past month.

LL:    Yeah, without a doubt. When we came into the season, I think there was some debate on whether or not he was going to start the year with Dunedin, whether that was internally as well as externally. So he ended up getting pushed, and I think having him on the opening day roster was definitely seen as a challenge for him.  I think people in player development talk a lot about wanting to challenge guys.

DMF:  For a guy as young as Arjun to be challenged this early in the year, this early in his career, I think that shows what the Blue Jays think of him.

LL: And the challenge has been very literal, he’s batting .178 through 24 games, 37 strikeouts. He'd be the first to tell you that that's not acceptable. But what I've talked about time and time again on the broadcast is just his work ethic, his resolve, his mental fortitude going through this stuff. Obviously, the first thing, this may be the first time he's really ever struggled in game situations as a baseball player. That needs to happen for guys at some point, and you'd rather have that in single A than the major leagues, right? So that's one thing he's working through. He’s constantly in the cages before and after games, making adjustments.  I think the biggest thing is just adjusting to professional breaking balls. Sliders, especially. Big difference. Florida high school baseball is competitive, but it's not single A, obviously. But the thing that's really encouraging to me is he's risen to the occasion. When the pitchers are better, it seems like he's better…..his first homer came against a big leaguer in those big league spring training games. He hit that one home run. So I think that's reason to be encouraged. On Sunday, he had three walks, started to rack up a few extra base hits over the weekend. I'm continuing to be encouraged by Arjun. And another thing is just he's mature beyond his years, wise beyond his years.  That's one thing that Jose Mayorga said in one of our initial conversations before the season started was his outlook is long-term, whereas a lot of guys his age, 18-, 19-year-olds, they're focusing on, okay, what is this drill, or what does this stance adjustment do for me right now? How can this help me hit .300? Rather than, okay, long-term, how does this help my career? And I think Arjun has a very long-term mindset, and I think that will help him.

DMF: How does he look defensively to you? I like his hands, like some of the fundamentals that I've seen, but I don't think I've got a big enough sample size to really make a judgment.

LL: Defensively, he's been solid.  The few miscues, a few long throws that he hasn't gotten all the way to first base, but those are kind of few and far between. I've got to be honest, I don't think his arm has been tested a ton. There haven't been a lot of balls hit deep in the hole where he has to try and make a play at first base. But he has smooth hands, good hands, good rhythm, turning double plays, and I think it also helps that I think the rest of the middle end field is really solid defensively with Manuel Beltre playing a lot of second base with him. That's a pretty good double play combo right there. So his defense has been good, and I think it will continue to improve with more reps.  He's the everyday shortstop, no doubt about it, so he doesn't have a shortage of opportunities. He's penciled in there.

DMF: Yhoangel Aponte:  high risk, high reward?

LL: Yeah, you know, I think I wouldn't even say high risk, high reward. What I've seen from him is increasing patience. I think the big thing with him was strikeout rate last year. That was the big concern. Obviously there’s a lot of loud contact, but with that loud contact came a lot of strikeouts. This season that's not the case. I'm sure he's striking out his fair share, but he's also walking a lot. I've got the stats up right now….. He leads the team in walks. He's got 15 in 26 games, and as a result his OPS is almost .730. So despite a .207 average that I think has been a byproduct of a little bit of bad luck lately, I think he's probably one of the best pure hitters on this team right now, a guy that just compacts the baseball on a consistent basis. Usually has at least one or two hard hit balls every single game. So he swings hard, and it seems like lately he's been connecting more often than not.

DMF: Another guy that I just really like, not sure about his ceiling, but I like because I'm like him, a small, speedy, get-on-base centerfielder, or at least I was, is Victor Arias.  You said something that caught my ear on that Friday night game was that he's not in the top 30, but he's kind of banging on the door.

LL: Yes, without a doubt in my mind. The numbers kind of speak for themselves, I think, with Victor. But he's just, another thing with him is just he's so fit. He's a very physical player. He's not the tallest guy, but he's still imposing. We said on the broadcast the other day, but some scouts were talking in the box at TD Ballpark about how he's kind of built like an NFL player a little bit, like a Safety. He has big arms, big legs, can really fly on the base paths. And his approach has really impressed, I think, not just me, but a lot of the coaching staff. How he's went about his business over the off season and in spring training. You know, going about fixing some of his weaknesses last year, making adjustments in his stance. One thing that Nash Knight, the hitting coach, said was he's really, really worked on hitting the pitch in the upper half of the zone. That, as a result, has improved his posture, helped him reach every pitch. And usually you look at a guy like him with his profile, you know, built, left-handed hitter, that screams pull happy, but he's not. He hits to all fields and really works at that, does a lot of drills trying to hit to all fields. And I think that's maybe one of the foremost things that has impressed me. He's got the ability to be a pull power guy, but that's not how he approaches his at-bats. He's been one of the best hitters, not just on our team, but in the league.

DMF: I must admit, I'll watch Perez and I may not watch much of the game beyond that. Or I'll watch O'Halloran, and that's who I'm really interested in. So I haven't seen a lot of the bullpen guys, but a guy who really impressed me because I love his delivery is Kai Peterson.

LL: Yes. He is really tough. And you want to talk about, oh, I don't know if so-and-so is a big leaguer, I don't know.  All I know is if Peterson keeps having success throughout the minor leagues and maintains that same delivery, he could be one of those situational left-handers.

DMF: As a high draft pick, we expected a lot from Tucker Toman last year, but he struggled and found himself back in Single A again this year.  Are we seeing some signs of improvement?

LL: His swing has been a lot better than his average indicates.  He’s hitting the ball hard at a good clip, something you’d expect from a player who has adjusted to the level.  Strikeouts have piled up, but I think we’ll see a breakout from him soon.

DMF: Finally, Juaron Watts-Brown, like O’Halloran, is a college guy, but unlike O’Halloran, he’s scuffled a bit so far.

LL:  The stuff is real, especially the slider, which has had a lot of swings and misses.  The key in May for Juaron will be avoiding trouble early in order to pitch deeper in games.  He threw 6 innings for the first time this season last night (Wednesday).

Congratulations for finding me on beehiiv! I admit this new platform is a bit of a challenge - I think of myself as fairly tech savvy, but that is being put to the test. Don’t forget to hit the subscribe button, and if you feel so inclined, a small donation helps to keep this endeavour going.