Future Blue Jays Newsletter

Pitching and lots of it in this edition….a year ago, the Blue Jays minor league pitching depth resembled a M*A*S*H unit. Now, they club is regarded as one of the best developers of arms in baseball.

I’ll show myself out….

But seriously, I’m running out of superlatives to express the season the former 19th round pick has had.

He’s attacked the strike zone, refined his slider, and has continued to work on his change up. It’s that third pitch that will need to be developed further. High school draftees like Stanifer often need time to develop that pitch. Stanifer really didn’t need a change in high school, because few batters could time up his fastball; using it, in the words of former long time Blue Jays minor league manager Dennis Holmberg, “gives most high school hitters a chance.” I can echo this. The first time I saw Nate Pearson pitch in person was in Vancouver near the end of the 2017 season. The Blue Jays had been very cautious with Pearson that summer, given his previous injury history and the college workload he had that season, so he was only pitching in 2-3 inning starts. On this occasion, he allowed the first runners past 2nd base all season as a result of trying to work on his change.

A year ago, Stanifer was having trouble finding the strike zone in Florida. One of his teammates struggled as well, and repeated Dunedin as a result.

Guerra turned in as dominant a pitching performance as I’ve seen this season….and while I’m at it, let me emphasize that last point. I watch many, many games online, some in person, and I usually have conversations with people in the organization about them. 53 of his 67 pitches were fastballs. Guerra was basically saying to the opposing hitters, “here it is…try and hit it.” Speaking with a former Blue Jays player development staffer after that outing, he felt that Guerra - who topped out at 95 in that start - could hit 98 or even 99 in a relief role. Throwing that many fastballs gave me the feeling that Guerra was being groomed for just that. Starts will continue to build up his arm, but if he can continue to command that fastball and develop one secondary, he has back of the bullpen potential.

Guerra’s performance earned him Florida State League Player of the Week honours, the fourth D-Jays pitcher to claim the title.

And speaking of dominant pitching performances, Sunday saw yet another one. Vancouver RHP Austin Cates retired the first sixteen hitters he faced before allowing a base hit, tossing six scoreless innings on the day. While Cates may not have been as overpowering as Guerra, what was more impressive was that this was the second time he had faced opposition Hillsboro that week (he tossed six scoreless innings the first time, as well).

Cates maybe was lost in the shadow of teammates like Stanifer, Trey Yesavage, and Khal Stephen in Florida. But after posting a microscopic 0.90 ERA in four July starts, he was off to the Northwest League where he simply has not missed a beat.

Cates is an interesting story. He attended Juco power Southern Nevada, where he was a two-way player. His father passed away while Cates was there; he homered in his first AB after his return:

Cates’ performance at Southern Nevada earned him a scholarship to UNLV, where he did not disappoint. The Blue Jays saw enough to draft him in the 7th round last year.

Cates throws a four-seam fastball that he’s already added two mph to since college; he can command the pitch to both sides of the plate. The fastball sets up his two secondaries, a slider and a swing-and-miss splitter:

Cates’ use of the last pitch has been on the conservative side. He goes with the FB/SL combo more, but that splitter has been a weapon. Because he consistently locates his fastball, hitters have to be ready for it; the splitter often catches them by surprise. Cates throws first pitch strikes, and while he has piled up the Ks (28 in 21.2 innings at High A), he doesn’t miss a ton of bats - he misses them, but not at a Yesavagian rate. He does get a high percentage of called strikes, but at AA next season that likely will drop.

I asked Blue Jays MiLB pitching coordinator Ricky Meinhold for his thoughts on Cates, and the response was immediate:

(He’s) relentless in his pursuit of daily development. The communication and trust with the coaches and staff to help him in his journey has been refreshing. Each challenge we’ve given him, he’s chipped away at progress. Really awesome to see him getting stronger as the year has gone on.

Cates’ progress has been another success story for the player development group. He’s added velo, refined his fastball command, and is learning to command his splitter. While his stuff is more back of the rotation in terms of quality, he’s put himself on my prospect radar with his feel for pitching, and ability to locate and sequence his repertoire.

Also lost in the shuffle has been the performance out of Buffalo’s bullpen by Adam Macko. Macko has come into the game from the bullpen for Alex Manoah. It’s not exactly a piggyback situation, because Macko comes in when Manoah reaches his pitch count, so he doesn’t always start with a clean inning.

But what a turnaround. I saw his first bullpen outing in August, and he was pounding the strike zone so much that I had to double check to see that was Macko pitching. His return to AAA in June seems to have been marked by a lot of nibbling. That’s partly understandable for a guy who missed most of spring training. His arsenal has been pared down to mostly a fastball/slider mix; he throws his change, cutter, and sinker as well, but it’s been primarily those two. And as you might expect, the fastball is playing up; Macko had been sitting 92-93 as a starter, but he almost touched 97 in his most recent outing. He’s getting hitters to chase his slider, the pitch he’s generating most of his whiffs on. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but in 10 relief innings over 3 appearances, he’s given up just one earned run and three hits.

I asked one of my player development people about the turnaround. There really wasn’t anything mechanical, he told me. “Maybe it’s a coincidence,” he admitted. “He’s just been really locked in the last 3 weeks, and really focused on competing….he’s simplified some stuff.” Perhaps Macko feels less pressure coming in after Manoah. Whatever the case, it’s certain that the Blue Jays have taken notice.

Another pitcher finishing the season on a very strong note is Fernando Perez:

After that impressive home debut for the Fisher Cats, Perez in his next start tossed 7 shutout innings, allowing only three hits and a walk, striking out four. Perez continued to pound the strike zone in that outing (85 pitches, 59 strikes), and while he gave up some flyball contact, much of it was of was of the soft variety. His whiff rate at AA is only just over 7%; that’s something that will have to improve if he is to make it to AAA.