Future Blue Jays Newsletter 5/31

June 01, 2023

All the news from around the system that’s fit to print…..

Top 30 Update

Let’s lead things off with a quick progress thumbnail of the Top 30 Blue Jays prospects.

Ricky Tiedemann - after dealing with some shoulder soreness in spring training, Tiedemann took himself out of his April 13th start, and has been on the IL with bicep inflammation ever since. GM Ross Atkins two weeks ago said: There is no word on whether or not Tiedemann has had a baseball in his hand. His is a cautionary tale for young pitchers; sometimes, no matter the precautions taken, an inning increase early in their career tends to see something of a setback in the following year. Once he does start to throw again, it will take some time for him to ramp back up. The Blue Jays will be taking things very carefully with their prized prospect. Trending ▶️
Brandon Barriera - after a lights-out pro debut, Barriera has had some minor bumps, his latest being a rain-shortened 2-inning stint in which he gave up 3 runs (2 earned) and hit a pair of batters. This is not unexpected, and anyone who was thinking of a Tiedemann-like ascension through the minors this season for last year’s top prospect should think again. Adjusting to life in pro ball is difficult, with a number of hurdles to pass, and Barriera has been no exception. He’s still striking out better than a batter per inning, and there is plenty to get excited about. One thing about Barriera that stands out is a whopping 76% GB rate, certainly a product of a small sample size, but an indicator that hitters are having a tough time squaring him up. But developing starting pitchers takes time, and Barriera just turned 19 at the start of March. Trending ▶️
Yosver Zulueta - Zulu has taken his lumps as well after rocketing through the system last year. He’s pitched exclusively in relief since the middle of May, his fastball control the main issue - he’s walked 12 in 13.2 innings this month. Last off season, the Blue Jays were making all the right noises about continuing to develop Zulueta as a starter, but now that plan appears to have been shelved. Trending ▶️
Orelvis Martinez - what to make of this one-time Top 100 guy? Martinez has only 24 hits to show for the first (almost) two months of the season, but 13 of them have been Home Runs, many of the no-doubter variety. Orelvis continues to hammer mistakes, but is still working on his swing decisions. If there is a light at the end of the tunnel, it’s that he’s finally showing some patience at the plate - he drew 15 walks this month, triple his April total - and striking out less. He’s become a true feast-or-famine player at the plate. And his defence has been, well….adequate to date, but certainly not spectacular. Trending ▶️
Tucker Toman - similar to Barriera, Toman’s first full season of pro ball has had some ups and downs. Even though it’s Single A, the Florida State League is a challenge for young hitters - the ballparks are huge, and for the first six or so weeks of the season, the ball doesn’t seem to carry that well. May was a grind for Toman, as he slashed only .222/.364/.367. But he has a knack for getting on base, and he should heat up as the season progresses. Trending ▶️
Addison Barger - after a bust-out 2022, the strong-armed Barger has been on the IL since the end of April with elbow issues. Reports say tests revealed no structural damage, but there is no date for a return to action yet for the multi-position slugger. Trending ▶️
Sem Robberse - Robberse’s 4.95 ERA through 9 AA starts is probably more reflective of him hitting his pitch limit than it is an indicator of how well he’s pitched. Robberse is definitely pitching to contact more than he has in the past, but he’s striking out better than a batter per inning. The longball has been a bit of a problem - Robberse has surrendered 9 in 43 innings. But the velo is up a tick, and Sem is still pounding the strike zone. Trending slightly ⬆️
Cade Doughty - Doughty has had his struggles in his first full season, his average dipping to .189 last week. But the had three consecutive three-hit games over the weekend, and now the numbers don’t seem quite as bad. Let’s see if he can sustain this as the Northwest League weather heats up. Trending ▶️
Adam Macko - take out two of his six starts, and Macko’s line is quite respectable; a blow up in April (8 ER in 3.2 IP) and in his next-to-last last start have inflated his ERA to 6.41. But this is a guy who hasn’t pitched a whole lot - his career high is 38 IP - and he’s a long-term project. Trending ▶️
Hayden Juenger - Juenger has come a long way for a guy who was drafted in 2021. But he’s had his ups and downs in AAA this season. Juenger has had 5 scoreless multi-inning outings, and he’s had several where he’s been roughed up. He’s a guy the club really envisions in a bulk role, but his progress to date shows that it takes time to develop a big league bullpen guy. Trending ▶️
Dahian Santos - the owner of one of the best sliders in the organization was one of the youngest players at Single A last year, and is one of the youngest at High A this year. Despite having his issues with the strike zone so far (16 BB in 27 IP), he’s making good progress. His latest outing was a five-inning, three-hit shutout beauty, in which he didn’t walk a batter (he did hit two) and struck out four. While there have been suggestions that he’s a big league bullpen guy in the making, it’s still worth remembering that he still very much is developing. Trending ⬆️
Gabriel Martinez - Martinez burst onto the scene last year; there was even speculation that he might be placed on the 40 in order to keep him from being exposed in the Rule 5. His decent (.241/.305/.358) line so far shows just how far he still is as a 20 year old from big league readiness. Scouts are somewhat divided on his potential, but like many players his age, he’s still figuring out his own personal strike zone. Trending ▶️
Josh Kasevich - the Oregon State product is almost a year into his pro career, and Baseball America nailed it with their evaluation of him: A strong defender with above-average contact and on-base skills, but little power. Kasevich looks like an average everyday shortstop with enough offense and defensive value to play everyday. Kasevich has been on of Vancouver’s best players, and if not for Leo Jimenez and Orelvis ahead of him, might have joined teammate Riley Tirotta, who was promoted to AA last week. He’s spent a little time at 3rd, but has mostly anchored Vancouver’s infield defence at SS, and has hit a bit as well, with a .743 OPS. He’s yet to hit a HR in just over 250 pro plate appearances, which is the one blemish on his report card. Trending ⬆️
Otto Lopez - Lopez is what he is: a contact-oriented guy who can play a multiple of positions. He will likely remain that in the Toronto organization until he runs out of options. A slow start at the plate meant that he was passed over for non-roster player Ernie Clement last week. Trending ▶️
Dasan Brown - ok, I admit to being biased here. I spent time in Vancouver’s dugout with Dasan last week, and he’s such a great kid that this fellow Ontarian couldn’t help but root for him (although he didn’t know where Collingwood is, and I suggested to C’s coach Ashley Stephenson - a Burlington high school teacher prior to joining the organization - that she should tutor him in geography on some of the team’s bus rides). Tools just ooze out of Brown, and after watching him finish last season on such a strong note, it’s been disappointing to see the start he’s had (.191/.256/.490). Vancouver manager Brent Lavallee has dropped Brown from the leadoff spot - likely to take some pressure off of him - and hopefully he’ll begin to pick up after a 7-21 week in Spokane last week. Trending ▶️
Adrian Pinto - if only this Alutvian leadoff hitter could stay healthy, he’d be primed for takeoff. Injuries limited him to 47 games after coming over from the Rockies last season, and he made another trip to the IL last week. Pinto gets on base, can create some havoc while he’s there, and generally is a potential spark plug. Trending ▶️
Enmanuel Bonilla - has yet to make his pro debut after signing last January, but the $4 million man has been described as one of the best bats in his IFA class. He’ll likely start in the DSL in a few weeks.
Spencer Horwitz - all this guy does is hit. Perhaps the pop isn’t there in abundance, and he’s limited defensively, but Horwitz’ bat is hard to ignore.Perhaps he’s a Quad-A guy in the long run, but it feels like his time is getting closer. Trending ⬆️

Leo Jimenez - finally healthy, Jimenez is putting together one of the best runs of his minor league career. More solid than flashy on defence, Jimenez has posted an .844 OPS over the last month. Is he a big league shortstop ? That’s still hard to say, but he’s certainly moving in the right direction. He’s hitting leadoff for New Hampshire, but is more of a table-setting bottom-of-the order, glove-first guy. Trending ⬆️
Manuel Beltre - the showpiece of the Jays’ 2020-21 IFA class has been developing slowly. There is no doubt about his work ethic, but in three years with the organization he’s yet to play above Single A, but that will likely change toward the end of the season. Beltre’s main tool is his ability to put the bat on the ball, but like a lot of young players, he’s still getting a feel for the barrel. He won’t turn 19 until next week, so time is still on his side. Trending ▶️
Alex De Jesus - came over from the Dodgers in the Mitch White deal. There is some power potential there, but De Jesus is in his fourth season of A ball. Trending ⬇️
Hagen Danner - it’s been a long and winding road for Danner, first drafted as a catcher by the club in 2017. Converted to pitching (Danner was a two-way player in high school), Danner missed much of last season. Brought along slowly this year, he’s been lights out at AA before a promotion to Buffalo; he could be coming to a big league bullpen near you soon. Trending ⬆️
Adrian Hernandez - a year ago at this time, screwball wizard Hernandez seemed on the cusp of a big league job until shoulder issues sidelined him for a month. Sent down a level to AA partly because of the depth ahead of him, and partly to work on fastball velocity and command, Hernandez has had an up and down season to date. Without a higher-octane fastball to work with, the organization obviously feels that big league hitters won’t be fooled by that devilish change. Trending ▶️
Estiven Machado - has been a disappointment to date. In Dunedin last year, he made some contact and got on base, but showed little pop. Sent to Vancouver to start this season, he’s spent time on the Development List to help him get his game together. Trending ⬇️
Trent Palmer - out for the season after undergoing Tommy John last fall. He had risen as far as AA.
Rainer Nuñez - had a breakout season last year, and after a slow April, caught fire in Vancouver, and was rewarded with a promotion to AA this past week. There are a lot of moving parts to Nunez’ swing, but he’s cut down on the swing-and-miss element to his game, although with his long levers, that will always be there. Perhaps not a future Gold Glove candidate, Nunez has made himself into an adequate 1st Baseman. It will be very interesting to see how he fares against advanced pitching. Trending ⬆️
Irv Carter - Carter’s career to date has shown flashes of brilliance; after making his pro debut in the FSL and Complex last year, he started this season on the IL, and has only recently returned to competition. We had expected more from him at this point in his career. Trending ▶️
Davis Schneider - Schneider is the overachievement poster child. The 2017 28th rounder had solid Org Guy credentials prior to last year, but he made some adjustments and began to sell out for power, belting a career-high 16 HRs at three levels. He’s picked up right where he left off last year, and was likely considered for the 40-spot and big league promotion that went to Ernie Clement last week. There is a bit of a log jam of guys with Schneider’s profile, but he’s doing his best to rise above the pack. Trending ⬆️
Damiano Palmegiani - Palmegiani had a breakout 2022, and the Surrey, BC resident was challenged with an assignment to AA to start the season. A bat-first player to be sure, Palmegiani has above-average contact skills, and and excellent knowledge of the strike zone. This 14th rounder is looking more and more like a potential platoon-type big leaguer. Trending ⬆️
Luis Meza - catchers tend to take longer to develop, and while the highly touted 2022 IFA had a disappointing season at the plate in the DSL last year at 17, there’s little doubt we’ll see him again, although perhaps not at full season until next year at the earliest. Trending ▶️

How about some guys (except for Horwitz and Schneider) who are not on that list?

It just goes to show that development is not always a linear process. Lantigua, who you will never see on a top prospects list, has been in the organization since 2017, and has played well wherever he’s been, but his power has always been more of the gap type - he had 35 doubles last season. At 5’7”/153, he’s certainly not the biggest guy in the world, but has shown an increasing feel for the barrel. A five-position player, he’s a bit lost in the shuffle.

Dallas was promoted to AA, has given up just one unearned run in two starts since becoming a Fisher Cat. With Tiedemann out of action, he and Kloffenstein have been the best two starters in the system.

Williams is a large (6’5”/255) individual whose bat has done some talking in Single A - if not for Nunez ahead of him, he likely would have started the year in Vancouver, where he was promoted several days ago.

Not far from being on that list are recently promoted (to AA) relievers Mason Fluharty and T.J. Brock. Brock’s name continually came up in my off-season conversations with people around the organization. A-ball relievers are a dime a dozen, but once they get to AA we get a much better idea of their big league potential.

More on Kloff

I’ve watched Kloffenstein with great interest this spring. The 2018 3rd rounder seemed to be on the fast track in 2019, but Covid and his own mechanical issues have held him back. Last season, he seemed to fall in a pattern where all would be going well in a start for several innings, then he would lose his delivery and the strike zone as a a result. This year, Kloff is much sharper; he leads the Eastern League in IPs and Ks. He seems to have recovered some of his former velo, but he’s still working on his fastball command. Still, everything is pointing in a very positive direction.

I asked Kloff what, if any, mechanical adjustments he’s made, because I didn’t detect a huge difference between 2022 and this season.

You’re correct my mechanics are very similar, it’s more of a mindset change that has helped me a lot. Just finding the supreme confidence that I used to have coming out of high school and early in my pro career and really not being scared of anyone or any situation.

Kloff spent time with Alek Manoah in the off season, and I asked him what that experience was like:

Alek and I are great friends. We met in 2019 in Vancouver and have been boys ever since… he helps me a lot on and off the field. We had a lot of fun together and getting a taste of what it’s like to be in his shoes is definitely a motivator for me.

I asked if the best pitch in baseball is still strike one (which he’s thrown a great deal of this season):

Absolutely the best pitch in baseball is still strike one and the best pitch after that is the one that gets him out

Some numbers……

Top hitters over the past 30 days (as of Tuesday)

Top starters to date:

Top relievers (as of Tuesday)