Future Blue Jays Newsletter 6/21

A look at a top 2022 draft pick, thoughts about promotions, prospects on the rise, and a very early look at this year’s Rule 5 eligibles in this edition.

Who’s In Line for a Promotion?

Many factors are in play when a player is being considered for a promotion that go far beyond his stat line. Certainly, performance is at the top of the list of boxes, but there are others to be checked - does he have good work and training habits, is he a good teammate, and does he have the maturity to deal with the failure that might come at a higher level? Is there room for them at the next level - what roster moves will have to be made?

Generally speaking, the Blue Jays prefer to have a player spend at least a calendar year at each level, but they’re not afraid to promote a player ahead of that timetable. A number of players have already made the move, and with mid-season in the minors approaching, here are some other names that are probably being talked about by player development and coaching staff:

Dunedin

-Ps Kendry Rojas, Rafael Ohashi, Harry Rutkowski, IF Ryan McCarty

Vancouver

-INFs Josh Kasevich, Cade Doughty, Michael Turconi, OFs Garrett Spain, Alan Roden

New Hampshire

-Ps Adam Kloffenstein, Troy Watson, INFs Leo Jimenez, Orelvis Martinez

Tucker Toman

The 77th overall pick from last year’s draft has had a slow start to his pro career, but it has not been unexpected. Baseball America ranked him as the Blue Jays 8th top prospect in their recent rankings:

The month of May was not kind to Toman, as he slashed .213/.351/.338. He has hit slightly better from the left side of the plate (.701 OPS) than the right (.656). Toman excels at working the count - he’s seen more pitches per AB than any other hitter in the organization. And while he’s not afraid to hit with two strikes, he does tend to expand his strike zone a bit - Toman has a K rate of just over 30% to date. But he can also draw a walk. While BA termed his a future bat-first 2nd baseman, he’s split his reps on the left side of the infield. He can make the long throw across the diamond from the hot corner with his strong, accurate arm, and makes good reads on ground balls at SS.

Despite the slow start, there is little cause for concern. A year ago, Toman, was playing against high schoolers. This is a kid who is still learning about everyday life as a pro, and is still developing a feel for his barrel.

Early Look at the Rule 5

The Blue Jays will not be facing a Rule 5 crunch to the same extent that they were last November, but there are several players for whom decision time is coming.

Buffalo utility guys Davis Schneider and Rafael Lantigua are having fine seasons at the plate. Both were R5 eligible last year but were left unprotected. It’s hard to see both being added to the 40-man, but Lantigua’s better defence and versatility might give him the edge. One or both could be selected if left exposed.

Among the players eligible:

 Sem Robberse has had an up-and-down year (mostly the former) for New Hampshire, and it’s so easy to forget that he’s only 21. But the Blue Jays will have to make a decision on him this fall.

 Trent Palmer had success at Vancouver last season, earning a mid-season promotion to AA, until he was shut down in July, ultimately undergoing Tommy John. He should return to competition sometime in the second half.

 Zach Britton got a lot of attention for his second half performance in 2022, followed by a surprisingly strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Injuries have limited him to 17 games this year.

 Dasan Brown’s play over the next few weeks may determine his roster status come November. He had a slow start, but is showing signs of coming around at the plate. Teammate Gaby Martinez was left unprotected after a breakout season last year, and has struggled at High A.

 Dahian Santos has had his challenges at High A, but many signs point to him being in a big league bullpen one day, so his inclusion - while not a lock - seems likely. Rotation mate Adam Macko will also be eligible. He too profiles as a relief arm down the road.

C.J. Van Eyk’s return from Tommy John has had some setbacks, and he’s been unable to get out of Florida since his return. He would seem to be a longshot at this point. I think he’s still in the prospect picture, but losing two seasons (one to Covid) since being drafted has not helped his development.

C’s Win First Half Title

The Vancouver Canadians took care of things on home turf on Sunday, topping Hillsboro 5-1 in front of over 6000 fans at Nat Bailey -sorry, Rogers Field at Nat Bailey Stadium.

With the win, the C’s captured the first half Northwest League title. Vancouver has a 3.5 game lead over Eugene with 3 games left in the season’s first 50%. The W guarantees the Canadians a berth in the league best-of-three final in September against the 2nd half champs. If Vancouver wins that second half, the next-best overall record will line up against the C’s, who are off to their second league championship series in a row.

Buffalo will finish far up the International League track, trailing the Orioles’ loaded Norfolk affiliate by 14.5 games. New Hampshire seems destined for a third-place Eastern League finish, but a bolstered roster might see them make a second half run. Dunedin finished well back in their division, but perhaps another draft of collegians will see them back in the playoffs.

Do the playoffs matter in the minors? To the fans and the team employees, they certainly do. Ditto for the players, for the most part. Front offices tend to watch these games with their fingers crossed, hoping no top prospects get injured at the end of a long season. Vancouver fans have supported this franchise like no other in the past decade-plus, and a playoff team is their reward. I think I may start looking at flights in September……

Who’s Hot

The top OPS over the past two weeks.

1. Ryan McCarty, Dunedin. 1.194

2. Christian Feliz, FCL Jays. 1.122

3. Davis Schneider, Buffalo. 1.088

4. Leo Jimenez, New Hampshire. 1.029

5. Dasan Brown, Vancouver 1.022

It’s always fun to see the Complex guys pop up on leaderboards at this time of year:

Prospects Making a Move

BA listed a (paywalled) number of prospects in each organztion that are trending upward.

Some highlights:

-LHP Kendry Rojas made the biggest jump, from 21st to 6th:

 Rojas' fastball has added velocity while maintaining above-average ride on the pitch. With starters traits and improving stuff, Rojas is a big arrow-up name.

-SS Leo Jimenez, who I think has rsien even higher (20th to 7th):

 His versatility defensively is an asset but it’s been his combination of strong plate skills, above-average exit velocity data and the ability to find the barrel that has him climbing up the Blue Jays rankings.

-RHP Chad Dallas (NR to 15th):

 He mixes four pitches led by a sweepy low-to-mid-80s slider and a fastball that sits 92-94 mph. Dallas will mix in some curveballs and changeups but his slider and fastball combination is his bread and butter.

-RHP Connor Cooke (NR to 25th). Cooke still has a long way to go, but based on his performance this year, he might be among the likeliest relievers currently in the system to reach MLB - sooner rather than later. Cooke and Dallas may be valuable trade chips.

  His fastball features above-average velocity and plus shape and release characteristics that make it a swing-and-miss offering. He mixes in a high-spin low-to-mid-80s sweeping slider that may actually be Cooke’s best pitch.

-RHP Rafael Sanchez (NR to 28th):

 Sanchez has shown one of the most unique changeups in the Blue Jays system. A low-spin splitter, it's a signature pitch that the rest of his arsenal plays off of.

-RHP Ryan Jennings (NR to 30th):

 Jennings mixes a low-to-mid-90s fastball with a mid-80s cutter and a curveball with good depth. He’s a smooth athletic thrower with the potential to add more velocity should he move to the bullpen.

-Garrett Spain is a name that didn’t appear on BA’s list, but after starting the season on the Development List,  the outfielder has been one of the hottest hitters in the system over the past month.