Future Blue Jays Newsletter 7/26

Hey, all. It’s been a few weeks. Losing an argument with a table saw makes typing a little tough. Not to worry, I escaped with all my digits intact, but the last place you would want to be on a beautiful Southern Ontario summer day is an emergency room. Be sure to bring a book if you find yourself in such a place.

Biggest Risers and Fallers

I don’t really look at prospects in these terms, but a Twitter follower asked me the other day, and I thought I would go through my notes and find a number of players who either outperformed expectations, or fell short of them.

Risers

Position Players

1. Davis Schneider - now Schneider was a riser last season, but all this 28th round pick has done over the past year is hit. Schneider is tied for the organization lead in HRs, leads in OPS, and if not for a bit more defensive versatility or an ability to hit from the left side, would probably be in the big leagues right now. As it is, you have to think that his name is coming up often in trade discussions. Like Samad Taylor last year, he might be enough to land a complementary MLB player.

2. Alan Roden - Roden was leading the Northwest League in hitting at the time of his promotion to New Hampshire last week, and he’s reached base safely a baker’s dozen times in his first five games. There isn’t a lot of pop to Roden’s game just yet, but he gets on base (he’s been hit by a pitch 14 times, and has walked more than he’s struck out), can steal the odd base, puts the ball in play (his 5.0% SwStr rate is lowest in the system), and is an above-average defensive outfielder. Ideally, you’d like to see more power from a corner OF guy, but perhaps that will come for a guy who’s reached AA in only his second full season.

3. Leo Jimenez - a .829 OPS for a glove-first up-the-middle guy is something the Blue Jays will likely take and run with. With Orelvis Martinez moved up to AAA, Jimenez will occupy SS full-time, and that should only accelerate his development - this is a guy who VP Andrew Tinnish told me when they signed him that the Panamanian was as sure fire a big league short stop as he’d ever seen. Perhaps he’s not a highlight-reel defender, but Jimenez is solid at the position. His bat has taken huge steps forward this year (he’s in the midst of an Eastern League season-high 25 game on-base streak), just in time as he heads into his last year of options in 2024.

Pitchers

1. Adam Kloffenstein - it’s hard to think of a guy who was a Top 10 prospect and Northwest League Pitcher of the Year four years ago as a riser, but Kloff has finally rebounded to show that back-of-the-rotation innings-eater potential he flashed as a teenager. Kloffenstein has rediscovered some lost velocity, and has pounded the strike zone while repeating New Hampshire this year. His 10.6K/9 leads all starters in the system, and he’s missing bats at almost a 15% rate. Last season, Kloff would have innings where he lost his delivery and the strike zone as a result, leading to inflated pitch counts, and - more often than not - an early departure. This season, he’s been a workhorse, pitching into the 6th inning in almost half of his starts.

2. Chad Dallas - after a disappointing 2022, Dallas has learned to trust his breaking stuff more. The Blue Jays don’t necessarily feel that a pitcher has to establish his fastball if that’s not his best pitch, and Dallas has struck out better than a batter per inning at two levels as a result. He’s had a couple of rough outings in his last two starts, but in his most recent one he was facing a fairly well-stocked Red Sox affiliate in Portland for the second time in less than a month after the minor league break, so we’ll give him a bit of a pass.

3. Devereaux Harrison - Harrison had not started a game as a collegian or a pro before taking to the mound for Vancouver for a late May start; the 2022 9th round pick has been lights out as a starter since them. Harrison was the NWL’s Pitcher of the Month for June, posting a microscopic 0.78 ERA in four starts for the C’s. Harrison came back to earth a bit in July, but tossed five shutout innings in his first outing after the break. Not the hardest-throwing guy in the world (draft reports noted his velo was inconsistent), Harrison has sat 92-93 from the outings I’ve seen, but with excellent command of all of his pitches. Our good friend Niall at C’s Plus put together this profile of the former Dirt Bagger.

Fallers

Position Players

1. Cade Doughty - reports last year prior to the draft lauded the LSU produce on being one of the best controllers of the strike zone in the 2022 prospect pool. He led Dunedin to a second half title, and looked very advanced for this level. This season has been something of a disappointment, at least to this point. Doughty’s 30% K and 17% whiff rates are the highest of any full season guy in the system. On the plus side, Doughty has hit 11 HRs, and has shown extra base potential, but an OPS below .800 as the calendar gets ready to turn over to July is not what I would have predicted for him back in April. Just the same, there is still plenty of time for Doughty to turn this around, but he needs to start seeing more pitches.

1. Tucker Toman - given his age (19), there is reason to give Doughty’s draft mate more room for improvement. We don’t get to see a whole lot of the Dunedin guys play, but a viewing of about a dozen or so of his Toman’s PAs shows that he’s not afraid to hit with two strikes - he works the count very well, and sees a lot of pitches. But after posting solid Complex League numbers in a brief trial last year, we expected more than a sub-.700 OPS from Toman. The switch-hitter has had more success from the left side of the plate, and there appears to be a significant difference between his swing and approach from both sides. He’s still so young that there is plenty of time for him to make more consistent contact.

2. Roque Salinas/Robert Robertis - since we don’t get to see enough of these Low A guys, it’s hard to settle on either one of these young outfielders, but both have fallen short of expectations this year. Salinas was the MVP of Dunedin in last year’s playoffs, while Robertis hit a pair of long balls for New Hampshire in a brief end-of-season promotion last season after putting together a solid FCL season. This year, Salinas has posted a .527 OPS, while Robertis, after managing only a .130 average with Dunedin, has found himself back in the Complex League.

Pitchers

1. Irv Carter - big things were expected from Carter after he made his pro debut last year, but the 2021 5th rounder sports an 8.47 ERA over 34 FSL innings this year. Walks have been Carter’s biggest issue, as he’s allowed 24. In the brief sample of viewing of his starts this year, Carter has spent much of the time behind in the count.

2. Hayden Juenger - some eyebrows were raised with the aggressive assignment to AA the 2021 draftee received last season, but he was full measure for the promotion, and appeared on the verge of a big league job. But even though he continues to strike out better than a batter per inning, Juenger has had his ups and downs at AAA. Through 45 IP over 34 outings, he’s posted an inflated 6.55 ERA.

3. Yosver Zulueta - a year ago, Zulueta appeared to be on an even greater trajectory to the bigs than Juenger, pitching at four levels and having his name mentioned by pundits as a potential late-season addition to the Toronto bullpen. His fastball still remains electric, but his command of his bread-and-butter pitch has been spotty, as has been his ability to develop his secondaries. As a result, Zulueta has largely not been used in late-inning leverage situations.

Trade Bait?

Anyone who has watched the parent club this year knows that the Blue Jays have some roster holes to fill in advance of the trade deadline. Couple that with a 40-man roster crunch, and you have the formula for some late July dealing.

Who are the players the Blue Jays have been asked the most about? Ricky Tiedemann, for one, but even with the time he’s missed this season, he’s untouchable. The same would go for Brandon Barriera, despite Keith Law suggesting that the Jays were not happy with him reporting to training camp overweight. Beyond that, anyone and everyone is likely available.

Who are the most likely candidates?

-New Hampshire RHP Sem Robberse has to have drawn the most attention. More than holding his own at AA at the age of 21, Robberse will be Rule 5 eligible this fall. The scouts were out in full force watching Robberse, Kloffenstein, and Dallas in Portland this past weekend.

-Schneider, who was left exposed to the R5 last fall, but went unclaimed. That likely won’t happen again, and if the Jays don’t feel he’s a fit for the big league roster, they will want to include him in a deal to get something of value back.

-UT Addison Barger, who has caught fire after missing time with a sore elbow. Barger’s value may lie more in his ability to play several positions than his skill at any one spot, but he’s a left-handed bat with pop who could probably contribute at the major league level right now.

-UT Otto Lopez, who has not had the greatest of seasons at AAA, but will be out of options after this campaign. He’s still a useful Jack-of-all-trades guy who’s won a couple of MiLB batting titles.

-any one of the hard-throwing relievers in New Hampshire’s bullpen, including Mason Fluharty, Connor Cooke, and T.J. Brock.

-1B/LF/DH Spencer Horwitz seems to have gained quite a boost of confidence from his brief call up to the bigs - he’s hit .417 in July, and blasted 3 HRs in Syracuse last week. There may not be a position for him in Toronto, but Horwitz has probably earned another MLB shot.

-low-level relievers are a dime a dozen, but Dunedin has a pair of fire ballers in Lazaro Estrada (73 Ks, only 14 BB in 47 IP), and southpaw Kendry Rojas.

Jeffrey Wehler

Every once in a while, a guy comes along who bucks tremendous odds just to make it to pro ball, and flourishes once he gets there.

Such is the case for 2B Jeff Wehler, who the Blue Jays signed out of Indy ball last month. Wehler played for four years for Youngstown State, and another for Pittsburgh, but went undrafted last July - in the days before the draft was limited to 20 rounds, he would have been an early Day 3 guy.

Wehler has done nothing but mash for Dunedin, banging out a pair of homers last night, and he sports a 1.065 OPS. At 24, he’s old for Low A, and his shot a the big leagues is remote. But you have to appreciate how he’s made the most of his opportunity, and he should earn a promotion to Vancouver soon.