Future Blue Jays Newsletter

Pitching lines of the week, some thoughts on Ross Atkins’ words with the media, Arjun Nimmala put on the Development List, Who’s Hot, and some links for your prospecting pleasure……

Atkins Speaks

In the midst of a slide that has left this version of the Blue Jays falling far short of pre-season expectations, GM Ross Atkins spoke to the Toronto media on Saturday morning, a session many Jays fans had hoped would lead to bloodshed (or a good public flogging, failing that), at least judging from the social media reaction.

Nothing of the sort happened, of course, mainly because - for several reasons - it’s not this management group’s style.

Atkins did refer to the Blue Jays excellent group of hitting prospects at AAA in light of the team’s current offensive woes. No one asked, but the obvious follow up question should have been “ok, so why aren’t one or more of the members of this International League-leading attack on the big league roster?”

The answer to that question would have been just as obvious, coming in two parts: (a) where would some of them (we’re looking at you, Spencer Horwitz) play, and (b) throwing an untested player into the lineup of a team that likely is going to have to fight and claw for a playoff berth is a big ask.

Guys who should be in the bigs by and large,……are. Guys at AAA have one or more flaws that are leaving them just shy of prime time, at least for now. Horwitz has taken reps at 2nd and LF, and one wonders just what took them so long to give Spence some time at the former. Horwitz is not the rangiest guy in the world - he hasn’t really been tested at 2nd just yet, but he’s shown he can make the double play pivot, and has decent hands. He has a bit more experience in Left, but again, putting him there in a MLB outfield right now is, well - risky. One thing is for sure - while the pop isn’t there, the ability to make contact and get on base is.

After a torrid (1.013 OPS) April that had fans clamouring for his promotion, Orelvis Martinez has cooled considerably (.145/.279/.309) in May. His work at 2nd (he’s had time at 3rd recently) is still most definitely a work in progress.

Addison Barger had a brief trial a few weeks ago, and while his long-range prospect as a move around the diamond/provide some left-handed pop is promising, his time is still yet to come. The gap between AAA and MLB has perhaps never been larger, and Barger’s performance in The Show is the latest proof of that. Barger posted a .965 OPS in Buffalo’s last series. I really liked this hustle double that had him thinking extra bases right out of the box. Nationals top prospect James Wood either didn’t pick up the ball off the bat, or if he did, he was somewhat nonchalant on the play - but credit to Barger for seeing that.

Quite simply, if the Blue Jays were a St John’s to Vancouver distance away from being competitive, one or more of those players, as well as guys like Leo Jimenez, Nathan Lukes, and Steward Berroa would be here, continuing the last stages of their development at the big league level.

Nimmala to the Development List

Dunedin Blue Jays broadcaster Larry Larson told us two weeks ago that while he had his share of early season struggles, Arjun Nimmala was showing some signs of breaking out.

Those signs proved to be fleeting, though, as the Blue Jays placed Nimmala on the Development List last week.

The Devo List is a new wrinkle MLB added when they took over the operations of MiLB a few seasons ago. It gives players a chance to catch their breath, work on a few things, and maybe get their heads in a better space.

For Nimmala, the challenges were obvious. He was the second-youngest player in the Florida State League to start the season, was entering his first full season, and was seeing a steady diet of offspeed stuff and spin as April turned into May. According to Larson, there had been considerable debate among the Player Development staff about whether to put Nimmala on a full season roster, or hold him back in Extended.

Now on the Devo List, Nimmala can take a bit of a mental break from the challenges of playing every day. He can also spend some time in the new hitting lab to help improve his pitch recognition.

When Nimmala homered in a big league game at the end of spring training, the usual fans and members of the media jumped on the recency bias bandwagon, hailing him as the next best thing. The pitch he hit was a get-me-over cookie, and when I said so on Twitter, I had a fair amount of kickback. I wasn’t dissing Nimmala as a prospect, because he is as toolsy as anyone in the system right now, as much as I was suggesting we tap the brakes on those lofty expectations placed on an 18 year old.

I doubt his stay on the list will be long.

Lines of the Week

Pitching is and continues to be the strength of the organization. Here are some of the best performances of the week.

Nolan Perry was a high schooler drafted in the 12th round from New Mexico, which is a little off the beaten scouting path. He fanned 51 in 38 Complex League innings last year, and has bee brought along slowly since making his FSL debut earlier this month. In this pitch count-limited outing, Perry was in complete command, throwing mostly a four-seamer which touched 97, a sinker, and a curve, mixing in three other secondaries.

2023 3rd rounder Juaron Watts-Brown had his finest outing as a pro, and the Dunedin bullpen tossed five innings of no-hit, shutout ball. Irv Carter and Eliander Alcalde are becoming back end of the bullpen fixtures for the D-Jays.

Adam Macko just quietly continues to motor along. Until Ricky Tiedemann makes his return (Atkins in his presser said Tiedemann would begin bullpen sessions “soon”), Macko is the best starting prospect in the system.

CJ Van Eyk made his third solid start in a row for New Hampshire last week. He hit 95 with his fastball, and flashed a curveball that is probably the best pitch in his repertoire. It’s been a long road back from Tommy John surgery for the 42nd overall pick in 2020, but he’s showing some back-of-the-rotation potential this month.

Chris McElvain came over from the Reds in the Santiago Espinal deal, and has been an anchor in Vancouver’s rotation.

Who’s Hot

A look at the top hitters at each level of the past fifteen days:

Berroa on Fire

A few years ago, I asked Blue Jays farm director why the Jays had been having some trouble developing outfielders. While admitting it was something of a challenge, Sclafani pointed out several players, Steward Berroa (then playing at Single A) among them.

Outside of Nathan Lukes, Berroa has been Buffalo’s best position player, slashing .338/.419/.492 and swiping a dozen bases over the past 30 days. Berroa can play all three outfield positions, and spped has been his greatest asset, but this season (his second at AAA after a late season promotion from New Hampshire) he’s found a way to get on base consistently.

Could he be this season’s Davis Schneider? Maybe not, but there’s a reason Atkins included Berroa with the other top AAA prospects in his media session. He certainly ha started to fulfill the promise Sclafani saw. Berroa is an exciting player who plays the game with great joy.

Brian of Her Chronicles wrote a nice profile of Berroa.