We’re back from ten whirlwind yet glorious days in Newfoundland, a place I highly recommend you visit. Sketchy cell service and wonky remote hotel wifi did not keep me from keeping an eye on the Blue Jays farm system in between hiking, visiting tranquil coastal villages, eating seafood, and quaffing the occasional Quidi Vidi Iceberg beer.

Since it’s that time of the baseball season when everyone it seems is an expert on the MLB draft, I thought I would do something of a deep dive on the entire amateur scouting efforts of the Mark Shapiro/Ross Atkins era.

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J.B. Woodman was, in many ways, a can’t miss prospect. The Mississippi OF had received high grades in all five tools prior to the 2016 draft; scouts at the time said no one tool stood out, but Woodman was the owner of a powerful left-handed swing (he was the first Ole Miss hitter in 40 years to lead the powerful SEC in Home Runs), and at 6’2”/195, had the physique that suggested MLB success would be in his future. “I love the kid,” said an opposing college coach prior to the draft. “We played Ole Miss earlier in the year. I just thought he was one of the best players we had ever faced. I thought he was terrific with his athleticism. He’s one of the more polished and athletic players. It was fun watching him play.”

The Blue Jays agreed, and took the player his teammates called “Superman” in the 2nd round, 57th overall. After signing, Woodman headed to then Short-Season Vancouver, where he put a decent if not overwhelming .796 OPS with the Canadians, then went 20-34 in a 9 game trial at the end of the season with the Jays former Single A Lansing affiliate.

But that was as close as the can’t miss kid would get to the big leagues in a Blue Jays uniform. Perhaps confused by a series of hitting coaches and instructors who tinkered with his mechanics, Woodman struggled to a .240/.320/.378 line in his return to Lansing, and lost confidence as his once-vaunted power seemed to disappear (he also struck out four times for every walk). Woodman may have overdone it in the weight room as well, sacrificing flexibility and agility for added strength. The Blue Jays felt they had taken the former top prospect as far as they could go, and at least turned him into Aledmys Diaz from the Cardinals after the 2017. The following year he was released in August by the Cards’ High A farm club after putting up only a .691 OPS, and striking out in 46% of his At Bats. He never appeared in a professional game again.

Woodman was one of two misses the Blue Jays had that draft. Top pick T.J. Zeuch, regarded as one of the top collegiate pitchers available, was taken with their first round pick, 21st overall. Unlike Woodman, Zeuch did make his MLB debut with Toronto, appearing in five games in 2019. Zeuch would play in parts of two more seasons with the Jays before being dealt to St Louis in July of 2021 after having been designated for assignment. Zeuch would bounce around with four other MLB organizations before being released by Washin.gton earlier this year. He’s currently pitching in the Mexican League.

With Woodman being regarded as something of a safe pick, the Blue Jays rolled the dice with the second of their 2nd round selections, taking a Florida prep SS with a funky swing and MLB bloodlines in Bo Bichette. In the 3rd round, they took RH reliever Zach Jackson, missing out on Zac Gallen. They did find some value in later rounds, drafting Cavan Biggio in the 5th, Kirby Snead in the 10th, and Josh Winckowski in the 15th round.

All in all, the 2016 draft produced little of value besides Bichette for Toronto. Players like Dane Dunning, Cole Ragans, and Dylan Carlson were selected after Zeuch; Bryan Reynolds, Brandon Marsh, and Pete Alonzo were all taken in the 2nd round after Woodman. Reynolds’ 18.9 WAR leads the class, with Marsh, Alonzo, Bichette, and Dodgers’ pick Will Smith not far behind, but there was a considerable drop off from that group.

What are the lessons to be learned from J.B. Woodman’s case? It’s that perhaps outside of the top few players in each draft class, there are no guarantees. Many of the players selected in the top several rounds have had little or no experience with adversity: the game has always been easy for them, and they’ve always been the best player on any team they’ve played on. But pro ball is a different animal. Not only do players have to learn how to train, perform, and recover on a daily basis, for the first time in their baseball lives, many have to deal with a prolonged stretch of poor production. Some learn that baseball is a game of failure and move on, others (like Woodman) get eaten up by it, and never recover. Players who got by in the past on the strength of their physical talents alone have to quickly learn the all-encompassing mental side of the game as well. The draft is how teams stock their farm systems - mostly with guys who will never get a sniff of MLB life, but are talented enough to play with those who will.

Here’s a brief recap of the Blue Jays drafts since then:

2017

With the 22nd overall pick, Toronto selected North Carolina SS Logan Warmoth, considered to be the best collegiate SS in the class. Warmoth eventually reached AAA, where the Blue Jays tried to convert him to a multi-position player, but he never hit enough, and was claimed by the Mariners’ AAA affiliate off waivers after the 2022 season. He’s now playing at AA in the Diamondbacks’ system.

With two picks in that first round, Warmoth was considered the safe one. With the 28th pick, acquired as a result of Edwin Encarnacion signing with Cleveland, the Blue Jays selected Florida JuCo product Nate Pearson.

Other players selected include Hagen Danner (3rd), a two-way player originally signed as a C. Danner struggled at the plate, and was turned into a reliever in 2021, and placed on the 40-man that fall. Danner has shown flashes at AAA, but has had a hard time staying off the IL, where he currently is.

1B Ryan Noda tantalized with his ability to get on base in a manner similar to Spencer Horwitz, who would come along two years later. Noda was traded to the Dodgers in 2021, then was claimed by Oakland (with whom he made his MLB debut) the following season. He’s playing for Oakland’s AAA affiliate.

The best position player the Blue Jays selected turned out to be a New Jersey HS 2B with a commitment to Rutgers by the name of Davis Schneider, who was taken in the 28th round - a round that doesn’t exist today.

Who they missed: The 2017 draft class has not proven to be a strong one. About the only player you could consider a miss was Missouri RHP Tanner Houck, taken between Warmoth and Pearson with the 24th overall pick.

2018

With their first pick, at 12, Toronto snapped up Texas HS SS Jordan Groshans. Groshans was as impressive a lower-level player as I’ve ever seen in my baker’s dozen years of writing about the Blue Jays system. I saw him over the course of several days in Lansing, when the Lugnuts were the Jays’ Single A affiliate, and he impressed both in games and in pre-game drills, as well as at the plate, where he was squaring up professional pitching a mere ten months after his high school graduation. Defensively, he had some work to do, but he looked like a big leaguer.

A few weeks after I saw him, Groshans landed on the IL with plantar fasciitiis, a miserable and painful affliction which I once had (if you have it - try Graston therapy; it’s medieval, but it works). It just seemed liked he was never the same after that, although his foot pain wasn’t to blame. Groshans had a high leg kick in his swing that some scouts didn’t like, and certainly his power diminished as he moved up the ladder and pitchers exploited it. He, similar to Woodman, had added a fair amount of muscle, which only served in the long run to slow him down. He looked athletic, one source in Lansing told me, right up until he left the batter’s box.

Groshans never did hit for the power the Jays envisioned, was moved to 3B, and was dealt in the trade with the Marlins that brought back Zach Pop and Anthony Bass. He made his MLB debut with the M’s, but is now in AA with Oakland, his fourth MLB organization.

With the 2nd pick, Toronto went legacy, selecting Duke OF Griffin Conine. In two seasons in the system, Conine showed power potential, but also an inability to make consistent contact. He’s now at AAA with Miami, having been dealt as the PTBNL in the deal for Jonathan Villar.

The 3rd pick was Groshans’ HS teammate, RHP Adam Kloffenstein. Kloff had an up and down minor league career, but seemed to have put everything together at New Hampshire last year before being dealt to St Louis in the Jordan Hicks deal last July. He made his MLB debut with the Cards last month, but was sent back down to AAA.

6th round pick Addison Barger has had two trials with the big league club. Injuries stalled his development last year after a breakout 2022.

Who they missed out on: again, not of guys, but Seattle took P Logan Gilbert two picks after Groshans. The M’s also took C Cal Raleigh two picks after Kloff.

2019

As a reward for finishing 16 games under .500, Toronto had the 11th overall pick, and acquired West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah.

You know the rest - he made his MLB debut in 2021, was an All-Star and finished 3rd in AL Cy Young voting the following year, crashed and burned in 2023, and seemed to maybe finally have turned things around this season before injuring his UCL.

Manoah had the misfortune to be picked in the last draft before COVID, and you can’t help but wonder how his career path would have gone had he been two years older. In 2019, he was on a strict pitch count after being drafted, missed all of 2020 due to the pandemic, and was fast-tracked, ultimately blowing past his career high in innings pitched in 2022 by 75 innings.

Toronto selected Florida prep RHP Kendall Williams with their 2nd round pick; he became a PTBNL in the deal with the Dodgers for Ross Stripling the following year. Save for one start, he hasn’t pitched above AA.

3rd round pick Dasan Brown, a local kid from Oakville, was considered one of the toolsiest players in the draft. But he was considered equally raw, and despite some promising moments has not played above High A.

There were some late round finds: Virginia HS P Mike Dominguez, currently at AA but could move up in a relief role was taken in the 15th round, LHP Brandon Eisert in the 18th, and Horwitz in the 24th round.

Who they missed on: again, there were no huge misses. Georgia HS OF Michael Harris may have been a safer pick in the 3rd round, but all things being equal, teams usually like to go with upside.

2020

This one hurts. The draft was limited to five rounds, and the Blue Jays have received no direct value from any of their picks.

With the 5th pick, Toronto chose Vanderbilt OF Austin Martin, a guy draft reports said was as complete a player as you were likely to find in that crop. A bat-first player, Martin’s ability to put balls in play and get on base was said to be elite.

But after only a season and a half in the system, the Blue Jays felt he would never hit with enough pop or play adequate defence to become a full time MLBer, so they packaged him in a deadline deal with RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson to the Twins for Jose Berríos. Martin was a utility player with the Twins before going on the IL last month.

2nd round pick P CJ Van Eyk and 3rd round pick Trent Palmer both had Tommy John surgery not long after turning pro. Both are struggling at AA - Palmer hit the IL at the end of May.

Toronto’s 4th round pick, RHP Nick Frasso, caught a heavy dose of helium in 2022, and was dealt at the trade deadline in the unfortunate Mitch White deal. While there was considerable teeth-gnashing among Jays fans as Frasso continued his climb up the Top Prospects rankings, the player development department was not a huge fan of his mechanics. Frasso had undergone Tommy John in college, and hurt his shoulder late last season, forcing him to undergo more surgery which will keep him out of action for all of 2024.

C Zach Britton, Toronto’s 5th rounder, had a breakout 2022, but injuries stalled his development last year. After being moved to the OF, he’s back behind the plate at AA, where he’s struggling to find his swing from two years ago.

Yes, all other teams were in the same boat as the Blue Jays. Player evaluation that year was made difficult by the pandemic, but there is a gap in the system caused by this draft, which was a below average one for the amateur scouting staff and front office. At least they were able to get some value in exchange for Martin.

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It’s still too early to put a grade on the 2021 draft class, although it will get high marks if/when Ricky Tiedemann can get healthy enough to fulfill the potential he’s shown. The 2022 class isn’t showing as much as had been hoped for, but there’s still time for players in that group to turn things aroound.

The case of Woodman serves as a cautionary tale in many ways, but the main takeaway is this: there are no guarantees in the MLB draft. Unless you’re picking first and a once-in-a-generation player is there for the taking, the draft is very much a roll of the dice, and for most teams - if they’re going to gamble, they might as well go with upside.

The MLB draft is a creature very much unlike the draft of the other major pro sports. You can’t trade your core picks (that may change), a huge source of prospects isn’t even subject to the draft, and for many teams, signability is the sixth (and sometimes most important) tool. The main difference, of course, is that the overwhelming majority of players are three years - if ever - at the absolute minimum away.

Have the Blue Jays drafted poorly? That would take a study far more comprehensive than this one, but when you use WAR as a metric, the Blue Jays have received the second lowest total in MLB from the draft in the past decade. The qualifier there is that the Blue Jays have at least been able to turn some of those picks into players that have given the big league club some value.

Certainly, there were some misses, but the Jays system to me isn’t empty as much as it has been emptied. Top picks Martin and 2021 1st rounder Gunnar Hoglund have been dealt, Alek Manoah and 2022 top pick Brandon Barriera are injured (the Blue Jays top four starting pitcher prospects are all on the IL right now), and complementary players like Kloffenstein, Sem Robberse, and Frasso have been traded at the deadline. And the draft choices the Blue Jays have made along the way have done little to fill that void.

In 2018, as I sat in Mark Shapiro’s office one warm mid-October day, I asked him about the future plans for the Blue Jays farm system, and as a guy who cut his front office teeth as a farm director, he broke into a broad smile. He talked about building a state-of-the-art minor league complex (which he has accomplished), and about having waves of prospects coming up from the minors (which he has not). Scouting is a difficult business (in the IFA market, which I’ll look at in a future post, is doubly if not triply so); the player development staff can only work with what they’re given. And it’s in the former that the Jays have been below average.

I don’t put a lot of stock into Top Prospect rankings (who was talking about Davis Schneider or Spencer Horwitz a year ago?), because they are all about upside, and if you look back at past lists, there are plenty of guys on there who didn’t make it. But certainly, once you get past Tiedemann and Orelvis Martinez, there are no potential impact players in the top levels of the system. There are some players (Arjun Nimmala, Fernando Perez, Victor Arias, and Nolan Perry come to mind) in the lower levels who hold promise, the injured pitchers will be back (and hopefully as promising as before), and there’s reason to be optimistic with the most recent draft (more on that in the next newsletter as well). But there are certainly gaps in the system, and it won’t be surprising if GM Ross Atkins attempts to shore that up at the trade deadline.