Future Blue Jays Newsletter

Yet another look around the Blue Jays minor league system…..

Mc Carty Gets the Nod

After a weekend of watching Vancouver play, Ryan McCarty is a much-deserved winner of the NWL POY.

A two-way player at Penn State Abington, McCarty went unselected in the 2022 draft, and was signed by the Blue Jays as a free agent. McCarty has been a full-time position player since turning pro, splitting time between 1B/2B and 3rd. He and 2023 draftee Nick Goodwin have been the cornerstone of Vancouver’s offence so far the season; the pair have combined to drive in 20 of the C’s Northwest League-lowest 34 runs.

McCarty homered in both games I saw, and his oppo line drive double down the 1st Base line in the bottom of the 9th to keep Vancouver’s 2-out, 5-run walk-off win was a key and timely piece of hitting. Not necessarily a burner, McCarty runs the bases well:

McCarty hit .419 (8/21) for the week, drove in 10 runs, and is the first C’s position player to capture the award since Davis Schneider in 2022. The season is young, but he leads the NWL in RBI with 11, and is in the top 5 in OPS and Slugging.

The Blue Jays appear to be developing McCarty as one of those multi-positional guys. He is a right handed bat with some pop, but at 24 (McCarty turns 25 later this month), his developmental clock is ticking. More weeks like this one will force some player moves to open up a spot in New Hampshire.

Goodwin and McCarty were obvious standouts. On the pitching side, reliever Chay Yeager is a name to tuck away for possible future reference:

Tuesday

In the past, I’ve surfed the Blue Jays system games online each night, but this year I’ve decided to focus on one game at a time, and I’ll probably transition to following each club for a week. On this occasion, it was time to watch Dunedin, specifically LHP Connor O’Halloran, a 5th round pick from last year’s draft from Michigan, and more importantly for Toronto fans, a kid from Mississauga whose Dad once suited up for the Jays.

O’Halloran put together a career year in 2023, earning Big Ten Pitcher of the Yeah honours, boosting his draft stock tremendously. Part of his scouting report from Baseball America:

 The 6-foot-2, 190-pound lefthander throws from a deceptive and low, three-quarter slot and is able to locate his low-90s fastball well to either side of the plate. He averaged 89-91 mph on the pitch this spring and touched 94, and will need to be able to spot the pitch with precision at the next level to keep hitters off of it consistently. His best offering is a high-spin slider in the low 80s, which boasted a 42% miss rate, and it was an equal opportunity bat-misser against both righties and lefties—though given his arm slot and sweepy shape, it should be more consistent in same-side matchups in pro ball. He mixes in a mid-80s changeup with some tumbling action that should be a key pitch for him to prevent platoon advantages in pro ball. O’Halloran doesn’t have the loudest pure stuff, but he could develop into a touch-and-feel back-end starter if he can add a few more ticks of velocity.

O’Halloran pitched in a half dozen Florida State League games after the draft, making one start and posting a 6.30 ERA in 10 innings, 8 bases on balls leading to that bloated figure somewhat. In his first start for Dunedin this year, he surrendered only one earned run over 5 innings to the Yankees’ Tampa affiliate.

At 6’2”/190, O’Halloran has the prototypical pitcher build. O’Halloran throws a sinker, slider, change up repertoire from a low three-quarters arm slot. That slider was definitely on display, a plus pitch that kept RHH honest in this start. He showed command of a good change that will likely only get better, and the only blemish on his night was a sinker he left up on the outer half that was knocked oppo out of the park for a two-run homer.

As you would expect with his bloodlines and college background, O’Halloran is very polished. His drop-and-drive mechanics are excellent, and he releases all of his pitches from the same arm slot. By his own admission a guy who pitches to contact, O’Halloran doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he does avoid plenty of barrels, generating a lot of groundball contact. There is a little room for him to add some strength to add some more separation from his fastball and offspeed pitches. Clearly, this is a guy who knows how to pitch, a pitcher who is already up to 80 pitches in his outings. O’Halloran will not be long for the Florida State League, I would think. Is he a big leaguer? Certainly, he’s not a high velo guy, but there’s enough there to see his ceiling as a back-of-the-rotation arm. If you appreciate a well-pitched game, you’ll enjoy watching this Mississaugan. The conventional wisdom says that everything comes from the fastball; the Blue Jays feel that if the slider is your best pitch, maybe that becomes your primary offering. O’Halloran has pretty much had his way with FSL hitters so far this young season, not surprising for a college pitcher with his feel for the craft. He should be in Vancouver before too long.

A guy Dunedin play-by-play announcer Larry Larson mentioned often was OF Yhoangel (Jo-on-hel) Aponte. Aponte was an unheralded 2021 IFA from Venezuela, but showed enough in his first two pro seasons to crack BA’s Top 30 Blue Jays prospect list at #26 in 2022. But some struggles last year dropped him from that perch. But some added maturity, plus better pitch recognition has helped to make an early season turnaround - Aponte leads the D-Jays in hits and extra base hits, and is tied for the team lead in RBI and stolen bases. Perhaps not possessed of one outstanding tool, Aponte reportedly has great baseball instincts, and a well-rounded game. Maybe he’s on a runway for greater things this season. A comp that comes to mind is Edward Olivares, who was dealt to the Padres in the Yangervis Solarte deal back in 2018, and has now caught on with the Pirates, his fourth organization.

Still with Dunedin, 1B Cristian Feliz caught my eye with this bomb:

A 2019 IFA, Feliz is listed at 6’4”/190, but looks bigger. He’s a bit awkward in the field, still maybe growing into his body at 21. There isn’t a huge body of success here (a career .715 OPS in three prior seasons; this was ony his third hit of the year), but that kind of bat speed is worth tucking away in your memory.

As if on cue, the Vancouver offence went kaput in their series opener in Eugene, getting no-hit by the Emeralds. Perhaps Aponte and Arjun Nimmala (currently taking a class course in spin in the Florida State League will bolster the C’s second-half offence.

Wednesday

Staying with the D-Jays, I watched Juaron Watts-Brown make his second start for Dunedin. JWB is an intriguing prospect, a long drink of water who some think could move quickly and possibly reach the big leagues in a relief role. This start (Jays like to have guys like him develop their arms in starting roles) showed some promise - 15 swings-and-misses, mostly on his slider - but he still has a long way to go.

JWB’s command was spotty, but he mostly cruised through four innings before reaching his pitch limit in the 5th. He struck out four and walked as many. To be honest, I expected a bit more from a 3rd round draft pick at Single A. He topped out at just under 94 with his four-seamer, but it’s a pitch that doesn’t miss a lot of bats (for the outing, he had 9 whiffs on the slider, 6 on his curve), and there is plenty of room on his lengthy frame to add some strength, and hopefully some velo to make his two breaking balls that much more effective.

My Twitter feed seemed to have regular Orelvis updates, so I thought I would take a look at Buffalo’s game in Columbus. And……wow.

Orelvis is on fire at the plate right now, hitting .341 with 9 extra-base hits over his past dozen games. The question will be about his defence, and well, he continues to be a work in progress. He’s still learning 2nd Base in terms of positioning, relays, the DP pivot, and the like. But he has the footwork and arm for the position, if not necessarily the reaction to batted balls. He’s not the fastest guy in the world, so playing LF is not a realistic proposition. But that bat is approaching MLB-ready.

Thursday

Grant Rogers, an 11th round pick from McNeese State last year, is kind of all legs and arms (6’7”) and a long-flowing mane of auburn hair at the moment, but he’s put together two solid starts for Dunedin, lasting into the 6th in this start.

Mike Dominguez has quietly been one of the most effective starters in the organization over the past two seasons. A 15th round VA HS pick in 2019, he’s slowly but surely moved up the system ladder, landing in New Hampshire mid-season last year. He’s started in AA again this season, but his 9 punchouts might be proof he won’t be long for that level:

At 5’10”/175, Dominguez does not have the usual starter’s build, which makes one wonder if/when a move to the bullpen might be in the works. Everything he throws moves, and when he’s on, Dominguez fills up the strike zone.

Oh, and Orelvis went yard yet again, this time off former Blue Jay CF Anthony Gose:

Dasan Brown had four hits to lead Vancouver to a 7-2 victory in Eugene. Brown teased with his five-tool ability in the C’s 2022 playoff run, but he hasn’t come close to matching that performance since then, hence his still being in High A 20 months later.

Friday

Orelvis went yard not once more, but twice:

Cue the inevitable calls among Blue Jays fans for his promotion to the big league roster. Maybe it will happen after this road trip, but Orelvis could still use some time in AAA. There is still, despite a huge improvement in pitch recognition, some swing-and-miss to his game, and his defence at 2nd is not Gold Glove-calibre just yet, an important factor for a pitching staff that relies on the groundball out. Martinez can be streaky, but man….when he gets on one of those rolls……

Orelvis’ time is coming. Just the same, in case you missed it, here’s what Blue Jays Director of Player Development told me last fall about the whole business of prospect promotion:

I had planned on watching Francisco Perez’ start for Dunedin, but decided to watch Alek Manoah take the mound in another rehab start for Buffalo instead. And the results were encouraging: he hit 95 on his fastball, didn’t issue a walk, and most of the 92 pitches he threw were around the plate. He did give up some contact, but all in all, Manoah is trending in a good direction.

At this point, a few things are obvious. Manoah is becoming more of a finesse pitcher as opposed to the power arm he was two years ago. If we also view that he’s basically six weeks behind the hitters, it helps put his performance in perspective.

Then there was this news…..

About all I can say is……this is what happens with young pitchers. The Blue Jays have done about all that they could with Tiedemann in terms of his buildup. They have managed his innings well, and designed an off-field program using the latest methods, a program Tiedemann by all accounts had fully bought into. But pitchers and arm soreness goes back to the days of Cy Young and Walter Johnston. Jim Bouton, a pitcher of comparatively more recent vintage, wrote this over a half century ago in his iconic Ball Four:

 Most pitchers are paranoid about their arms. You live in terror that you’re going to wake up in the morning and not be able to pitch anymore. You wake up in the middle of the night and make a throwing motion to see if it’s going to hurt. The first thing you do in the morning is to make a circle to see how your arm feels…….sometimes I’ll be out with my family, eating at a restaurant maybe, and all of a sudden I’ll circle my arm over my head and I’m sure that everyone thinks that I’m calling the waiter or I’m just crazy.

Maybe the Blue Jays are just being cautious, and perhaps the tests will show nothing. It doesn’t appear that there was a dramatic, mid-inning snap of the UCL like there was with Brandon Barriera two weeks ago. But this certainly resets the clock on Tiedemann’s season; he’ll have some rehab time in Florida before he returns to Buffalo if the MRI reveals no damage that would require surgery. This certainly lessens the chances we’ll see him in Toronto this season.

Saturday

Orelvis didn’t go deep, but he went 2-4 (his third multi-hit game in a row) extending his hit streak to 14 games as the Bisons topped Columbus 5-3. Recently demoted C Brian Serven hit a two-run homer on the first pitch he saw in a Buffalo uniform to give the C’s the early lead. Chad Dallas cruised through the first five innings before surrendering back-to-back long balls in the 6th. Addison Barger went 3-4 with a double, his 9th of the season, second-best in the International League.

Adam Macko had a start similar to Dallas’, allowing only one run through five innings before allowing three consecutive extra-base hits in New Hampshire’s 6-2 loss to Portland.

Vancouver split a doubleheader in Eugene, losing the first but taking the nightcap 7-5, thanks to a three-run shot in the 5th by Nick Goodwin.

Rehabbing reliever Lazaro Estrada made his first appearance of the season tossing a pair of scoreless innings to begin the game in Dunedin’s 2-0 loss to Clearwater. Estrada should be on his way to Vancouver before long.

Sunday

The news got no better in the injury department, when for the second time in three weeks, a starting pitching prospect left the mound mid-inning for Dunedin.

RHP Landen Maroudis, who drew raves in spring training, came back out for the 3rd inning with this velo having been down the previous one, a huge red flag in hindsight.

After breaking off a slider with one out in the inning, Maroudis called for the trainer and was removed from the game.

The Blue Jays can’t bubble-wrap these guys, but that’s three top starting prospects in three weeks if you’re scoring at home. That leaves maybe Adam Macko, Chad Dallas, and perhaps C.J. Van Eyk available should a starter on the big league roster do down until such time (if ever) that Manoah returns to form. No, Maroudis was not a candidate to be in MLB this year or the next, but now his timeline likely will be set back a year, pending results of the usual MRI these guys undergo shortly after getting hurt.

Elsehwere, how about the top of that Buffalo batting order?

You could make a case for promoting all three, but that likely isn’t going to happen. If Horowitz is simply going to replace Dan Vogelbach, he’s better staying at AAA where he can play every day. Barger has shown some comfort at 3B after finishing last season in the OF, and his left-handed pop would be welcome. As for Orelvis, well….you could rightly ask whose spot on the big league roster he would take, but again - he needs reps, needs to play every day. But he’s no doubt forcing a decision soon with the way he’s hitting.

Annnnnd….just before I hit the “publish” button, there’s this:

Who’s Hot

The top hitters in the system over the past two weeks:

PLAYER OPS

Orelvis Martinez 1.264

Addison Barger 1.125

Spencer Horwitz .972

Nick Goodwin .893

Damiano Palmegiani .876

Pitching Lines of the Week