Pitching, pitching, more pitching, an exciting position player prospect, and a little bit more in this season winding-down edition.

Alek Manoah

Yes, he doesn’t exactly qualify as a prospect, but since I got to watch his most recent AAA rehab start in person as something of an accidental tourist, I thought I would include my thoughts.

I was making the trip to Buffalo from north of the Greater Toronto Area to see Trey Yesavage pitch. The cancellation of the Bisons’ Tuesday game meant that Manoah, scheduled to make the Tuesday start, was bumped to Wednesday, Yesavage to the first game of the doubleheader the next day.

Such is the life of a prospect blogger.

I continued on, because a trip to Sahlen Field is always a worthwhile endeavour.

Manoah, to put it bluntly, had struggled in his three previous rehab outings (one each at Single A, AA, and AAA), and the friends who I was meeting in Buffalo and I had no sooner taken our seats that Yankees prospect Spencer Jones hit one off Manoah’s sixth pitch of the game 430 feet:

Manoah had command issues to start the 2nd inning. Something I had noticed in his prior outings was that he was having trouble sticking the landing on his delivery, so to speak. Sitting just out of the picture at Sahlen behind home plate, it looked like he was opening his front hip too soon, over-rotating, and not throwing in a direct line to the plate. You can see it somewhat on that pitch to Jones; it was more pronounced on other pitches.

Somehow, Manoah found his mechanics in the 2nd inning, retiring the final batter of the inning, then the next eight in a row. His velo was down a bit on the day, but perhaps he was sacrificing a bit of it in order to hit the strike zone more often as part of the organization’s new emphasis on attacking the plate. Command is usually the last thing to come back online for a Tommy John rehabber, and it looked like it was starting to return. In the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings, there was not nearly as much over-rotation, and the outs reflected that he was hitting his spots better.

Baby steps to be sure, and he’s not MLB ready, but the Blue Jays have to be happy with that outing. Word from Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith today is that the club is extending his rehab by using one of three 10-day extensions available for pitchers coming back from UCL surgery. The International League season has four weeks left on the schedule, so that will allow him at least one more rehab start with the Bisons. A return to MLB seems like a longshot, so perhaps another extension will be used.

Trey Yesavage

As he has with his other three promotions, Yesavage struggled with his command in his AAA debut. He put some of it off to nerves in a post game media availability, but I think several factors should be conisdered.

It’s a small sample size (two starts) to be sure, but Yesavage isn’t missing bats at the rate he was at the lower levels. Certainly, that shouldn’t be a big surprise, but he’s got a SwStr rate of 12% in AAA, vs 20% in AA. Part of the problem has been getting ahead of hitters while wearing a Bisons’ uniform. He’s thrown first-pitch strikes 54% of the time this year, but only 37% at AAA.

And there are reasons for that, of course. Hitters at each level chase successively less; they read the scouting reports, and know their own personal strike zones. Yesavage is also probably getting used to the AAA ball, which is the same as the MLB ball (why two different balls, you ask? It primarily comes down to cost). The seams on the MLB ball are lower, and that can affect pitch movement to a significant degree, depending on the pitcher. Yesavage’s fastball likely moves less on its downward path the the plate from his high release point; he certainly caught too much of the plate in the 2nd inning of his start this week.

But the splitter he used against a predominantly LHH lineup was a weapon, as former big leaguer Jeimer Candelario witnessed:

There were rumbles that Yesavage might find himself on the big league roster for September in a relief role, but given that he’s still figuring things out at AAA (if you can call 8Ks in 4.2 IP that), it seems unlikely. But his day in the big leagues is coming.

Silvano Hechavarria

It’s hard to believe that the Blue Jays signed yet another Cuban pitcher in RHP Silvano Hechavarria 14 months ago (to go with Rafael Sanchez, Lazaro Estrada, and current Red Yosver Zulueta), and he’s now at High A, but that’s where Hechevarria finds himself.

In truth, at 22, he was advanced for Low A, where he was mowing hitters down in his final outings for Dunedin, and needed the challenge provided by Northwest League hitters. He’s more than met that challenge, winning his first two decisions and posting a 1.54 ERA. If there’s a small red flag, it’s that he’s not missing as many bats as he did a Low A. He pitched into the 7th inning for the first time in his career in his most recent start, but struck out only 2 against the NWL’s last-place offence. Perhaps Hechavarria is fatiguing at the end of a long season (he tossed 49 innings last summer in his debut season, and with probably two starts left, he’s at 76 IP).

Hechavarria has a polished delivery which he consistently repeats. He’s come a long way this season, and we’ll likely get a more accurate read on his long term prospects next year.

Gage Stanifer

While some starting pitching prospects in the system appear to be tiring, Stanifer just keeps on firing.

I’ve written a considerable amount about him this year. It’s hard to believe that just a year ago he was a fire-balling Low A pitcher who had trouble finding the strike zone. Stanifer is a 19th round pick who is on the verge of being a Top 100 prospect.

He’s taken a different development path than Yesavage, for obvious reasons. Some fans have been clamouring for his promotion to AA to finish the season, but it was made clear to me from player development staff in early August that he would stay in Vancouver.

Next year should be an exciting one, a season that could see him knocking on the MLB door.

Fernando Perez

Lost a little bit in the acclaim all the guys ahead of him have been getting has been Perez, who quietly but effectively turned his season by the time Canada Day rolled around.

Perez gave up more than a hit an inning through the first three months of the season, a back-of-the-bubblegum stat to be sure, but an indicator that the pitch to contact pitcher was hitting too much of the strike zone. No one in the organization pounds the strike zone quite like the Nicaraguan. His 5.6% BB rate leads the system (and is top 30 in all of MiLB among qualifiers (take out the Complex League guys and its top 20) by a good margin, and he’s added a touch of velo this summer, sitting 93-94, and hitting 95 more than occassionally.

With Khal Stephen, Juaron Watts-Brown, and Kendry Rojas moved at the deadline, there was an opening in New Hampshire’s rotation for Perez, and he made the most of his AA debut:

The four seam fastball is not necessarily Perez’ best pitch (he shows great feel at a young age for his slider), but it might be the one he most consistently locates. His second start was not as successful - he walked 5 in 3 IP, very much out of character, but also an indication that AA hitters don’t chase. Perez has back of the rotation stuff, but you have to be impressed that Perez has reached AA at 21, where he’s pitching to guys three and four years older.

Juan Sanchez

The Jays’ 2nd highest IFA signing last January, Sanchez slashed .333/.442/.539 with six home runs in his pro debut in the Dominican League this summer. He’s been tabbed as one of the top players from the DSL who will play stateside next season.

That’s pretty heady stuff. Look, at 17, he’s still a long way off, and the Jays have not had the greatest luck with IFA position players over the past few seasons. But Sanchez, a SS who likely will move to his right before long, has made quite an impression. A snipett of Baseball America’s scouting report:

 Sanchez is a bat-first prospect with the feel-to-hit and power to profile as an above-average hitter at peak. His swing is built for damage but he shows an ability to discern balls and strikes, get on plane and hit hard struck drives to the outfield. He rarely misses in-zone, an excellent sign for his transition to play stateside in 2026.

That’s pretty heady stuff, and depending on how his spring training goes, there may be some temptation to start him in the Florida State League. But given the struggles high profile prospects like Arjun Nimmala and Tucker Toman have had as 18 year olds at that level, the Blue Jays may hold him off until the Florida Complex League gets underway in May.

Sean Keys

I was impressed by the 2024 4th rounder’s approach early in the season with Vancouver. A first glance at his numbers (.207/.356/.378) as the NWL season winds down suggest he’s struggled, but BA recently identified him as one of five underrated hitting prospects with strong underlying data.

Hitting in the Northwest League can be a challenge. The damp Pacific air in some parks can limit how well the ball can carry; Vancouver’s spacious outfield takes away some hits as well. In addition, with only six teams in the league, the scouting reports can be quite thick on guys who have spent the whole season there. BA really likes his ability to draw walks and make contact:

Keys pairs plus bat-to-ball skills and advanced swing decisions—rarely expanding the zone while showing some aggression attacking pitches over the heart of the plate—with above-average exit velocity, including a 90th percentile mark north of 104 mph.

With a compact stroke from the left side of the plate, Keys may find New Hampshire’s short right field porch more to his liking next season.

Arizona Fall League

It’s that time of year when we begin to think about players who will be sent to the Southwest for more seasoning.

Up until COVID, the AFL truly was a finishing school for top AA prospects. There is still a sprinkling of Top 100, but it seems more an more that teams are using the league as a chance for mid-level guys to get more reps.

With that in mind, a couple of names come to mind. New Hampshire 1B/OF Jackson Hornung, who was moved out from behind the plate this season, likely could use some more time learning his relatively new positions. RJ Schreck missed time this year, but the competition level may not be adequate for a guy who has been the best hitter in the system over the past month. AA relievers Hunter Gregory (who spent time on the IL this year) and Devereaux Harrison, recently moved to the bullpen, might get the plane ticket to Phoenix, where relief arms are always in need. SS/2B Eddinson Paulino also missed time due to injury this year, and might head to the desert. Cade Doughty, a guy who can play several positions, and has missed much time over the past two seasons, would also benefit from extra reps.

This catch by New Hampshire OF Gaby Martinez has to be seen to be believed:

Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.