Future Blue Jays Newsletter - AMA Edition

Vol. XII No.16

Author

Doug Fox
June 09, 2024

Wow. Are we 16 issues into the 2024 season already? How time flies when you’re watching 2-3 games per night (more like the next morning, when you can exercise your fast forward finger).

This week’s edition will be an AMA about the Blue Jays system. Loyal readers and followers have asked questions, and while I’m not all-knowing, a Blue Jays staffer once told me, “outside of our own organization, you know more about our system than anyone else.” Life goals, my friends.

Batting leadoff is my good Twitter friend Tammy:

In a word - yes. Of course that’s some cause for concern, and probably one of several reasons why Orelvis Martinez is still (in the minds of some impatient fans) in AAA. Orelvis has mashed lefty pitching to a 1.210 OPS, but that mark against right-handed pitching drops to a rather pedestrian .700. After a hot week in April, he’s cooled off, and is seeing a ton of sliders down and away from righties, almost as much as all other pitches combined. This, of course, is baseball: pitchers make adjustments, hitters have to respond to them. The ball is now in Orelvis’ court. His defence is still a work in progress, and as long as the Blue Jays believe they have a faint flicker of a chance in their post-season candle, he’ll be doing that learning at AAA.

I really just can’t stress enough the gap between the highest level of the minors and MLB - it’s the biggest I’ve seen in five decades of watching the game. It’s not unusual for a hyped AAA player to struggle at MLB and need a trip back to the minors - it happened to the greatest CF of this generation. But so many highly touted prospects have struggled with MLB pitching, where the velo is faster, the location better, and unlike MiLB, where you might get multiple looks at a pitcher due to six game series and mostly divisional play, the glimpses you get at MLB are much more fleeting. Orelvis’ upside is high, but so is the likelihood of him needing time to get used to big league pitching.

Another loyal follower asks a question many others have asked:

Several years ago, when I asked Joe Sclafani about the difficulty the organization has had in developing outfielders, he rebutted with several names, including Berroa’s. And while it’s true he’s been an afterthought when it comes to Top 30 lists, he’s put together a body of work (.313/.405/.461 with 26 SBs) that’s hard to ignore, especially for a big league club that hasn’t scored a first inning run in over a month.

Berroa is not a highlight reel defender, but he plays all three OF positions well, and covers a lot of ground with his speed and reads. Given all that, what’s holding him in AAA? Probably the fact that he’s more of a slap hitter (only 10 of his 59 hits have been for extra bases), although his ability to steal a base helps negate some of that. The switch-hitting Berroa is susceptible to velocity, however, and it’s likely he would struggle with that at the big league level. His true value likely lies in his skills as a fourth outfielder, anyway. Add to that and a roster move would be needed to add him to the 40-man (signed as an IFA in 2016, Berroa has been R5 eligible for several seasons now), and it seems unlikely that we’ll see him soon, unless a massive mid-season overhaul takes place.

A question from a loyal follower and friend from our days at good old Midland (ON) Secondary School chimes in with a related question:

 Addison Barger might be the prospect most likely to grace a Blue Jays outfield near you soon, but that would probably be on a part-time basis. The player who might be closest to a full time role would be Alan Roden.

Roden had a breakout 2023 between A+ and AA, but had a start to this season that was on the slower side. Roden made some offseason adjustments to his batting stance, lowering his hands from something of an extreme position in an attempt to get his barrel through the zone more quickly. Roden hasn’t faced a ton of southpaws, but has only a .528 OPS against them, making it seem that he might be more of a platoon option. But there is no doubt about his knowledge of the strike zone, and he’s developed into a serviceable right fielder.

I asked Roden about the changes he’s made, and here’s his reply (which, as you’d expect from someone who would be working on a Physics PhD if not for baseball, is quite thoughtful):

 Things are coming along. Something I didn’t anticipate with some of the physical adjustments was the need to also somewhat make some mental/approach adjustments as well in order to make use of the physical adjustments- if that makes sense. So that is what I’ve been working through so far this season. It has been, at times, a mixed bag of results, but I am confident in the changes.

When I told him that I heard he’s did a bit of damage to the video board in RF at the Fisher Cats’ Delta Dental Stadium home, he responded:

 It’s definitely gratifying to have some successes mixed in when trying to make adjustments. It just validates the work and shows that the process is working!

That observation reminds one that above all else, MiLB is something of a laboratory. Yes, players have to produce, but often it’s the process before the results. Minor League ball gives players a chance to make changes in a less pressurized environment. Again, they do have to put up numbers if they are to advance, but things like these are done with the player development staff’s blessing and guidance. It was no secret that Roden needs to put the ball in the air more to become a big leaguer, and this is how it’s done.

Here’s both his new set up and evidence of things starting to click from this week:

Roden’s outfield mate Devonte Brown, has speed to burn, but strikes out at a rate (just under 40%) that has to improve. As Fisher Cats play-by-play voice Chris Jared told us in the last newsletter, Brown doesn’t chase, and works the count well (only three other players in the system have seen more pitches), but he does have a fairly high (11.5%) whiff rate. If he could just make more consistent contact……..

In a similar vein,

It seems like we’ve been waiting for several seasons for a Dasan Brown breakout, and now finally after a strong May (.273/.379/.489), he may finally be ready to move up to New Hampshire. Brown covers CF like a carpet, and may be one of the fastest players in all of MiLB. No, you can’t steal first base, and you would expect someone with his game-changing speed to be able to get on base, a skill he finally appears to be acquiring.

Then there’s a trio of promising athletic ballhawks at Dunedin: (from L to R) Jean Joseph, Victor Arias, and Yhoangel Aponte. They are far away, but might represent the best collection of upside in one place in the system. Enmanuel Bonilla, currently in the Complex League, represents some hope for the future as well.

Tammy Rainey has another good question:

Really, at times last year I thought it might be Lantigua over Davis Schneider for a big league trial, but the latter’s pop made the difference. If anything, Langitua is better and more versatile defensively, but it’s that relative lack of extra base power that has kept him in AAA. Lantigua can draw a walk, steal a base, and did hit 40 doubles last year. He got off to a bit of a slow start this season, but his numbers will likely be on par with what he produced last year. Lantigua profiles as more of a super utility guy, but I think he could help a big league roster somewhere.

David G weighs in with another one:

This is a really good question, one that maybe requires a longer answer in a future newsletter. Right now, I would say the Top 10 are:

I could certainly go on at length about this list, but whenever I get a little down about the fate of the Blue Jays, I think about this relative strength in the organization. Is there a true front-of-the-rotation ace in this group? Aside from Tiedemann - who the jury is still definitely out upon - no. But if you’re looking for a solid mid-rotation arm, it could be Macko. After his most recent start, he allowed only one run over six innings while fanning eight, a Fisher Cats coach told me, “Adam looked like a big leaguer.”

Van Eyk will be pushed as a starter for as long as they can, but that curve ball is an absolute weapon, and paired with his fastball it’s easy to envision him as an effective bullpen arm. Danner has quietly been good, and the trio of young arms at Dunedin - I’m talking about Perez, Perry, and Stanifer - is very exciting.

Wallace is just a guy I’ve always liked - doesn’t throw hard, but just gets guys out:

I like this group a lot, even without Brandon Barriera and Landen Maroudis. I suspect we’ll see more scouts behind home plate watching these guys very shortly.