Future Blue Jays Newsletter

It feels good to be back in the prospect writing saddle once again.

I’ve been working on my latest book (more on that later), all the while keeping an eye on the Blue Jays farm system through the depths of this dark and snowy Ontario winter.

Time for Orelvis?

Orelvis Martinez enters his final options year with the weight of some quietly huge expectations.

He arrived to the big leagues on time last year, and the front office no doubt wanted him to get a lot of reps as he adjusted to big league life. And just as he had unpacked his bags, he was sidelined by a PED suspension. The player development staff was not amused, because these guys are read chapter and verse every spring and fall about supplements, and the front office has poured a lot of money into resources to help players.

Martinez comes into spring training with a legitimate shot to win a big league job; his ultimate position is still very much up in the air. Orelvis has the arm strength to play 3rd, but his overall skill set is probably better suited to 2nd. I could see him playing some of both, and DHing once or twice a week as well. I also won’t be surprised to see him needing more time at Buffalo this year, although I do see him eventually sticking this season. If he can make the adjustments to big league breaking balls, he could provide a boost to the Blue Jays lineup. There is plenty of risk here, but 20-30 HR potential upside. The bat will play at some point.

Roden Making an Impression

Yes, it’s incredibly early, but Alan Roden’s performance in the first week of spring training has opened a lot of eyes.

Geoff Pontes of Baseball America told me last fall that Roden scored off the charts in pre-draft athletic testing several years ago, and quite frankly, I’m not surprised. Roden may not have the chiseled physique of an elite athlete, but he has the traits that should translate to a very solid big league career. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and strike zone judgment, and on defence, gets solid reads and has a strong, accurate arm. For fans of the multiple intelligences theory, he has top-notch game intelligence, which manifests itself in a high baseball IQ.

Roden, early in his pro career, had one of the more unique stances and set ups in the game. I’ve talked to him several times about the changes he’s made along the way. Roden admits that during his first two years at Creighton he didn’t even think about a pro career, and was a very dedicated student. He took that studious approach a couple of years ago when he talked about the adjustments he had made at the plate:

 It’s definitely something that I will say is still a work in progress — the batting stance that is. However, there were a couple things that the stance brings me and the main thing is space. The stance that I brought into pro ball last fall was just not allowing me enough space to move behind the baseball, and thus the only thing I could do is move around it, mainly leading to lots of ground balls to the pull side. The stance I have now, where my hands are almost laughably far from my head, is basically just a way to force my hands away from me, and forcing there to be some space for them to move behind me. Another thing that I will say about the stance is that, for me, the batting stance isn’t especially important. It is more about being comfortable and putting yourself in a position to make your move on the baseball, and so for me the stance that I had this year was something we brought in during Spring Training, and I had some success with it. So, you know, why change it?

There is a lot to like about Roden’s game, and I think if his time isn’t now, it will be soon.

The Walking Wounded

If you’ve been keeping track of the Blue Jays list of UCL procedures performed over the past ten months, you no doubt have a growing spreadsheet.

Connor Cooke and TJ Brock were added to the list in the New Year. Cooke’s velo had been down over the last several weeks of the season, and Brock missed a good chunk of 2024 (although he got some innings in the Arizona Fall League) - both are a harbinger of not good things to come.

Also,

Both Brandon Barriera and Landen Maroudis had the UCL brace surgery performed, which should put them both on a faster recovery track. If all goes well, we should see them in games by mid-season. Nolan Perry, who had a breakout season at Low A last year is likely out for the season, which is very unfortunate. I really liked watching him pitch, and enjoyed seeing him start to mature on the mound.

I’ve had some preliminary exchanges with Ricky Meinhold, the Jays new minor league pitching development coordinator, about the progress of the guys returning from UCL injuries. He’s spoken just in general terms so far, but that’s likely because we’re just starting to build a rapport. I’ll give him time to get his feet wet in the new role, and set up an interview time once the season starts. Several sources told me last year that the problems seemed to relate to how pitching prospects ramped up at the beginning of the season; I’ll be very interested to see what changes the Jays have made.

Coaching/Managing Changes

ICYMI, the Blue Jays announced their minor league staffs the other week. There are not a whole lot of surprises, but there was some movement.

Perhaps the biggest name was that of Gil Kim. The former farm director, who has spent the last several seasons on the big club’s coaching staff, was named manager of Dunedin. Kim brought Guillermo Martinez into the organization, and while the latter is now gone, the Jays still obviously value Kim’s skills.

I admittedly have a soft spot for Gil - we had many conversations in his player development role with the club, and he was always engaging. We had a great conversation in the Vancouver pressbox late in the 2017 season while we watched a Nte Pearson start. A colleague who was making his first every trip to spring training the next season, at my suggestion, paid a visit to the minor league complex. I told him to ask around for Gil, and after they connected, Gil was very giving of his time; they had a great conversation about coaching and player development. Gil is very respected as a teacher and developer of talent, and I think this is the perfect role for his skill set.

In other moves, Jose Mayorga, who managed last year in Dunedin, has moved up to Vancouver. Jose is very well regarded throughout the organization. Mayorga takes over for Brent Lavallee, who is moving up to AA New Hampshire. And the man Lavallee is taking over for, Cesar Martin, is headed to Buffalo to join Casey Candaele’s coaching staff.

Looking for a Bounceback Season

One of the players who has been lost in the shuffle is 2B/3B Cade Doughty. Doughty made several trips to the injured list in 2024, and never seemed to be healthy enough to get on any kind of roll at the plate.

Doughty was the poster boy of the Shane Farrell regime, the hit-over-power college bat that the scouting staff gave to the player development folks to work with. He had a decent first full pro season (.801 OPS) with Vancouver, but struck out an awful lot (30%) for a guy whose calling card was his ability to make contact. No doubt some of that high K total was a result of trying to put more loft on the ball, which worked to some extent, as evidenced by Doughty’s 18 HRs (third in the Northwest League that year), but he was still swinging and missing at a 16% rate even last year, and was definitely not driving the ball as much in the small sample of games I saw him in. Injuries certainly didn’t help him hit with any sort of consistency.

But there has to be something there. Doughty was the 78th player picked in 2023, and while maybe that’s not where elite players tend to get chosen, he was one of the top hitters in his draft class. If he’s healthy, I look for him to bounce back this year, likely at AA. With the influx of infielders last trade deadline’s haul of prospects brought in, he is definitely down on the depth chart, but he’s certainly capable of a bounceback.

Life After Vlad

It’s always good to have a plan in life, one that can help you get through things when life throws you a hellacious breaking ball. Let’s face it: the chances of Vladimir Guerrero being a Blue Jay beyond the trade line are slim, the possibility of him being one next season less than razor-thin. We all should be thinking about a fall-back 1st Baseman. In all likelihood, the front office will look outside of the organization longer term, but there is some hope.

So, who is in the organization who could replace him at 1st Base? The pickings, unfortunately, are slim at the moment. Rainer Nunez looked like a breakout prospect two years ago, but has had middling results at AA, except for a .927 OPS last August. Nunez has come into spring training as a non-roster invitee having dropped some weight, which should help with his mobility and overall athleticism. Nunez can draw the odd walk, and doesn’t strike out a whole lot, but he just hasn’t shown the production that is expected from the position. He’s a fringe big leaguer, and I’m going out on a limb to even suggest that.

Riley Tirotta had a hot June that had everyone wondering about his big league future, but he cooled off after that and settled back down to his career averages. He’s more of a corner infield/outfield utility guy, definitely not a long-replacement at 1st.

You have to dig down to High A before you find someone who offers a glimpse of hope in the larger personage of Peyton Williams. Williams absolutely hammers pitches:

Williams is not a one-dimensional slugger, though. He gets on base, can drive doubles into the gap, and despite his dimensions (6’5”/255), he’s agile around the bag, and has baserunning smarts that keep him from being a base clogger. The issue for Williams - or of any player his size - is his inability, thus far in his career, to stay healthy for a whole season. Durability has not been one of his strengths. Just the same, he made the most of some added reps in the Arizona Fall League, and I look forward to him continuing his production and staying off the IL for extended periods at AA this season. If he can accomplish those goals, he puts himself squarely into the big league picture down the road.

Macko (Under) the Knife

LHP Adam Macko, who I had fully hoped would be in line for a big league shot at some point this season, suffered another setback when he underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He left a bullpen session on the second day of spring training early due to knee discomfort.

Macko has had a most difficult time staying healthy throughout his career. In 2023, he made every scheduled start for Vancouver, and it looked like his injury issues were a thing of the past. But he struggled last season with New Hampshire. His velo was down during several June starts, although I was told by one of the Fisher Cats staff that it was nothing to worry about. Macko hit the IL in early July, and missed two months. He did come back to make a start for Buffalo at the end of the season.

Manager John Schneider told reporters, “we’ll kind of see the timeline when he gets back here and (has) recovered a little bit,” after the surgery. Return to full baseball activities from a meniscus repair typically takes three months.

Prospects I’m Looking Forward to Seeing

My baseball travel plans may be limited this season. My wife and I are planning a trek for a milestone anniversary, and there will be a new puppy in our home at some point before the fall. Buffalo is an easy place to get to, and while I’m a bit leery about going stateside right now, I’ve always considered the Niagara Frontier to be an extension of Southern Ontario. So, I should make at least one trip to watch the Bisons this season, but other trips - even one to Vancouver - seem less likely.

Just the same, there are a number of prospects I’m looking forward to watching this season. In no particular order, here they are

1. Aaron Parker C. - Parker was a 6th round pick from UC Santa Barbara who impressed in two dozen games with Dunedin. At 5’9”/200, his physique resembles that of Alejandro Kirk, if Kirk had spent more time in the weight room. Parker has some pop, as well as some swing-and-miss, and can draw a walk. He adds to the catching depth in the organization, and should be Vancouver’s primary backstop.

2. Gilberto Batista RHP. Batista was acquired in the Danny Jansen trade with the Red Sox, and I really liked what I saw in a couple of starts with Dunedin. Batista has a mid-90s fastball, and a change that could become a plus pitch. There’s a lot about him that says future bullpen guy with that pairing, but he no doubt will start for now as the Blue Jays build him up. He should join Parker in Vancouver.

3. RJ Schreck OF. - I didn’t see a whole lot of Schreck after he was obtained from Seattle at the deadline, but I’ve read so many positive reports about him, and heard many good things from other evaluators that he’s worth following more closely this year. The Blue Jays outfield is crowded at the moment, so Schreck’s likely destination is Buffalo.

4. Jace Bohrofen, OF. - Bohrofen made an adjustment with his toe tap last July, and the result was a torrid (.368/.434/.621) August for Vancouver. It will be very interesting to see how he handles the adjustment to AA.

5. Some other guys…

   1. Daniel Guerra, RHP - averaged a K/inning in 15 starts for Dunedin

   2. Kai Peterson, LHP - reliever with a funky delivery who struck out 16/9 in 40 games between Dunedin and Vancouver

   3. Jacob Sharp, C - came over from the Mariners in the Yimmy Garcia deal; not the biggest guy (5’7”) but was cat-like behind the plate for Vancouver.

   4. Adrian Pinto, 2B - finally healthy, put up big numbers in the last half of the season for Vancouver.

The Book

Yes, I am working on another book project set to celebrate both the 100th anniversary of both Toronto Maple Leafs International League and Junior World Series championships, and the opening of Maple Leaf Stadium.

I’ve spent much of the winter buried in issues of the Toronto Globe and Daily Star this past winter. A source has turned me onto to the Mail and Empire, the Globe’s morning competitor. I’m also planning a trip to Yonge and Bloor to scroll through the Toronto Telegram microfilms of 1926.

The book is tentatively called “The Howleyites.” Reporters covering the team often used that nickname, and given that I have written about Leafs Manager Dan Howley in the past (I’ve nominated him for the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame, and wouldn’t it be great if he was inducted next year?), and for many reasons, I think the total is highly appropriate. When he was the Leafs’ bench boss, players would come and go from year to year, but the face of the franchise was always Howling Dan.

I’ve been shopping my book proposal around to publishers, something that has not proven successful in the past, and has led me to self-publish. As a respected Canadian baseball historian told me, “if it bleeds, it ledes,” in relation to the publishing world these days, but I’m optimistic. If not, I’ll be self-publishing once again, and heading out on the book talk circuit.

So, I can’t tell you when “The Howleyites” will come out, but if you like my work (or my previous baseball books “On Account of Darkness: The Summer Ontario Baseball Broke the Colour Barrier,” and “Severn Sound: A Big Leaguer Comes to Port McNicoll, available on Amazon), I’m sure you’ll enjoy this book. As usual, I turned this into more than a baseball book - I detail other events shaping the city and nation that year.

I’m having a blast writing this book. As a young man new to Toronto in the early 50s, my Dad spent many Saturday afternoons at the Stadium watching Leafs doubleheaders; my late Mother-in-Law was born six months after the Leafs’ final win. I thought about them often as I wrote.