Future Blue Jays Newsletter

February 24, 2024

 

In which we rank the prospects most likely to make their MLB debuts this year, players we’re looking forward to seeing, and some changes in MiLB.

Ranking the Prospects Most Likely……

Let’s face it - unless someone blows the doors off at spring training, which seems to happen less frequently in these days of pitch management, the Blue Jays will not break camp with a rookie on the roster. Not that this team is necessarily stacked, but it is at the point in its competitive window when the roster is mostly set.

Having said that, here, in order of probability, are the prospects who might crack the lineup.

  1. Connor Cooke The media hasn’t jumped on this guy just yet, but he was lights out last year, striking out 80 in 44 IP at three levels. The thinking two years ago was that Cooke would be lengthened into a starter, but he’s been just dominant in a relief role. There is some deception in his delivery, his fastball is plus (sitting 94-96; he added almost 3 mph last year on it), and throws a high spin rate slider. Cooke’s 40.6% K rate ranked third among all MiLB relievers who threw at least 30 innings. He also throws a change up that he might need to use more often. The walks were an issue that he needs to work on. Cooke is a premium athlete who attacks hitters, and profiles one day as a back of the bullpen guy. If anyone ahead of him in a setup role falters early on, the non-roster Cooke could find himself the next man up with a good showing this spring.

  2. Ricky Tiedemann The crown jewel of the system showed up with about 20 lbs of muscle added on from the start of last season (he looked very buff when he returned to action late last season). It’s a matter of when not if he makes the Blue Jays rotation, but with the club having created something of a safe space for Alek Manoah, the signing of Yariel Rodriguez, the ongoing ascension of Bowden Francis, and the impressive run Mitch White had at Buffalo to end the season, some added development time has been created for Tiedemann.

  3. Addison Barger Yes, this may seem like I’m going out on a limb here. Barger had something of a lost season in 2023. His development did not necessarily take a step backward, but he spent all of May and June on the IL, and just seemed to struggle to get back on track until part way through August. With the glut of up-the-middle guys at Buffalo, Barger found himself splitting time between 3rd and RF, and he looked really comfortable at the latter spot. He certainly has the arm strength for both positions. With the Blue Jays finding themselves with a ton of infielders in Florida right now, as Shi Davidi pointed out, a trade involving some of that depth may be in the works, which could open the door for Barger at some point if he re-discovers his power stroke at AAA. Unlike Cooke and Tiedemann, of course, he wouldn’t require a 40-man move.

4. Leo Jimenez

It would take (heaven forbid) a serious injury to Bo Bichette, but if the Blue Jays needed a long-term replacement at SS, Jimenez might take preference over the out-of-options Ernie Clement, who may be gone by then, anyway. Jimenez himself is out of options after this season, and the time may be now for the Blue Jays to see what they have in the Panamanian. The question will be about the bat.

  1. Orelvis MartinezLook, unless he tears the cover off the ball at Buffalo right out of the gate (and he’s always been a bit of a slow starter), we won’t be seeing Orelvis anytime soon, not with Eduardo Escobar now added to the mix of candidates competing for the 2nd base job this spring. But make no mistake about it - he’s the Keystone guy of the future. Martinez lost much of his top prospect lustre through his struggles of 2022, but he made tremendous strides at the plate last season with his strike zone management. Whiffs will always be part of his game, but 2nd is a good fit for Orelvis’ skill set, and that bat should become an impact one.

  2. Damiano Palmegiani While the glove has made strides, the bat is all but big league ready. And with things not necessarily solidified at the hot corner, Palmegiani - who would require a roster move - might find himself in Toronto if several cards fall in his favour.

  3. Chad Dallas I wasn’t originally going to include Dallas on this list, but he so impressed the farm department with his rebound in 2023 that he was given the spring opener start when Tiedemann’s hamstring was a bit balky. He’s obviously down on the depth chart at the moment, and would need a roster move, but his improved fastball command and velo, along with the cutter he added last season, would suggest he’s in the plans for the near future.

  4. Yosver Zulueta A breakout 2022 put Zulueta on the brink of a big league bullpen job, but he took a step backward last year until he was sent to Florida in August to right himself. And he came back a much different pitcher, posting a 2.31 ERA in September, fanning 17 and only walking 4 in 11 innings. Fastball command will always be what either makes Zulueta a dependable set up man, or a AAAA guy. A good spring could help him elbow his way back into the picture.

So Long Otto

Speaking of a glut of infielders, Otto Lopez, removed from the 40 last week, was picked up by the Giants, where apparently he’s in competition for a utility job.

Lopez was sidelined by an oblique injury for two months last year, and his hold on a roster spot became precarious. Still, all the trilingual role player has done in pro ball is hit (.298 career average); he just doesn’t have quite enough pop, or outstanding defensive skills to stick. Lopez actually played a passable CF in AAA last season, he can fill in at SS, and he can handle 2B well. Here’s hoping he finds a home in San Francisco.

Bye Bye Ben

RHP Ben Baggett, whose injury-riddled journey to pro ball I chronicled last March, was released by the Blue Jays last week. He was the longest of long shots given his injury history, but his perseverance speaks volumes about his character. Truth be told, these are the guys I enjoy talking to the most. The top prospects don’t always have the humility that the lower level guys have, and they certainly don’t have the insight that comes with having to bust your butt just to get to pro ball. Ben appeared on the verge of a breakout last spring when a shoulder injury sidelined him once again. I haven’t spoken with him since, but it’s likely he didn’t respond well to the surgery that followed. These are the guys you find yourself pulling for the most.

Who to Look Forward To?

Obviously, two names that jump out are RHP Francisco Perez, and SS Arjun Nimmala, who should likely both begin the season at Dunedin. That means we’ll only get to see one or both in late May, when the D-Jays visit the Pirates’ Bradenton affiliate, or again in August (providing one or both are still there). He may not start in Dunedin right away, but Nimmala’s 2023 fellow draftee Landen Maroudis will be someone we get to see a distant look at. Highly touted IFA Enmanuel Bonilla performed well in the DSL, and may open with Dunedin as well.

Personally, with a visit to Vancouver for Opening Weekend coming up, I’m looking forward to seeing Tucker Toman in person. Toman struggled in his first year of pro ball, and there are varying views on his potential, but he manages the strike zone well, and as the farm department people like to say, is “hitterish.” LHPs Kendry Rojas and Brandon Barriera, the 2022 1st rounder who had a pro debut that fell short of expectations, likely will be in Vancouver’s rotation, probably in a piggyback situation early in the season. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, the 3rd rounder from last year, may not have the upside other arms in the system have, but he could move quickly in a relief role. The betting is that he starts in Vancouver as well.

Brave New MiLB World

There are a lot of ramifications that will come with MLB limiting the total number of players an organization can have on active rosters, and the changing of the Florida Complex League schedule.

J.J. Cooper of Baseball America did a much thorough job than my sinus infection-addled brain can do at the moment, but if you can’t get behind the paywall, the crux of the issue boils down to:

-two years ago, MLB decided to start paying their MiLB players better, provide them with housing, and improved nutrition

-as a result of that, the multi-million dollar industry has decided that organizations can have only 165 players under MiLB contract, down about 15 or so, depending on the club.

Under the previous system, there was some slack built into it in the event of a player getting banged up and needing a week off. Now, only players on the 60 day IL do not count as being under contract, but the 7-day guys will.

As minor league pitchers work less and less every season, it’s curious to see the game move in a direction that may require them to work more:

Apparently, this move was given the blessing of the majority of the 30 MLB farm directors. I’m not sure where Blue Jays Director of Player Development Joe Sclafani sits on this, and I’ll try to feel him out on it when his schedule slows down a bit once the minor league seasons get underway.

Finally…….this marks my 13th season of covering the Blue Jays minor league system. I guess that makes me the dean of Jays prospect bloggers. Anyway, the minors have always held a fascination for me, and there’s nothing like spending a few days at Nat Bailey, or even Sahlen Field (a place I admit that I haven’t visited enough). I often ask myself if I should go to a subscription-based model (and thanks to those who have pledged to support it), but with two books now under my belt, and a third one underway, there just aren’t enough hours in the day for me to devote to this newsletter, even though it’s probably my first love. From time to time, I add in the Buy Me a Coffee link, which helps defray some of the expense of this endeavour. Thanks to all of my loyal readers, and my promise to you is to continue to bring you Blue Jays farm system content that’s hard to find anywhere else.

Let’s play ball, everyone.