Future Blue Jays Newsletter

The minor league season is less than two weeks away, so I thought I would offer thumbnail sketches of the Top 30 prospects in the Blue Jays system, starting with the top half this week. Join me as I start my twelfth (!) year of covering the organization.

The Blue Jays system is in something of a flux at the moment, for several reasons. A few top picks have not panned out - at least to this point - as had been hoped, and the international signings haven’t produced an impact player for the past several seasons. The Blue Jays are in a competitive window that sees them have to roll the dice when it comes to the draft - their last two first round picks have been high risk/high reward high schoolers who will take time to develop.

I’ve used Baseball America’s Top 30 list here. I suppose I could create my own, but it would be very similar. Are there future impact big leaguers on this list? Perhaps two or three, along with some potential very useful second division players. But there’s a reason the system is ranked in the bottom third. Several years ago, Mark Shapiro had talked about waves of prospects coming up over the years, but that doesn’t appear to be the case anytime soon. What does that come down to - scouting? player development? Likely some of both, but the front office has poured a ton of money and resources into the latter. In 2018, it was Shapiro’s dream to create a model minor league system, as well as a renovated Rogers Centre. When I asked him then about the latter, he said tersely, “you’ll have to ask (then Rogers CEO Joe Natale) about that one,” indicating some frustration at the slow progress of those stadium improvements. It probably took longer than Shapiro had anticipated to acquire the necessary approvals and funding to revamp the minor league complex as well, so perhaps the best is still yet to come. We do know that more and more minor league players are living close to the training centre in Dunedin in the offseason, and we’re seeing the improvements in the living conditions among the team’s prospects manifest themselves in players like Spencer Horwitz and Davis Schneider, late-round picks who have risen all the way to the big leaguers. The pitching and hitting labs, as well as covered workout fields which let players get their work in no matter the weather, the presence of nutrition, training, and recovery experts, and state-of-the-art strength, flexibility, and cardio facilities give the Jays something of a competitive advantage.

1. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP

As much as we can knock the amateur scouting department for the past few drafts, you have to give them kudos for drafting and signing the lefty after 31 other teams passed on him in both the truncated 2020 draft, and the first two rounds of 2021.

Tiedemann, quite simply, is the crown jewel of the farm system. And the player development staff will protect the king at all costs, especially after shoulder soreness prompted a trip to the IL last April, and a left biceps strain led to another.

There is little doubt Tiedemann could fit into any big league rotation right now; while he as the build of a workhorse starter (especially after he began to take his training more seriously - he looked much more trim when he returned to the mound last August), he doesn’t have the resume of one yet - Tiedemann has pitched only 122 innings in two pro seasons.

But he’s developed the best sweeper in the system to go along with a plus fastball, and a change that was until last year his best secondary. Tiedemann appears to have cleaned up some release point issues. His fastball moves, and there is some deception to his delivery. At this point, it’s just a matter of continuing his buildup and keeping him healthy.

Tiedemann will start the season at Buffalo. His ceiling is that of a 2 or 3 starter, with a modicum of relief risk.

2. Orevlis Martinez, 2B

And we have to give a tip of the hat to the player development staff for Orelvis’ remarkable turnaround last season. Even after a boom or bust 2022 season, where he was one of the youngest players at AA, the organization did not panic. There may have been a temptation to turn him loose when he returned to that level to start 2023, but they stuck to the plan: Martinez was to spend the first month of the season trying to go the other way. The result was a greater recognition on Orelvis’ part for pitches he could barrel (and those he could not), and a return to top prospect status came about.

Martinez is clearly a bat-first player, but 2nd Base appears to be a good fit for his skill set. He has the arm strength for the left side of the infield, but not the necessary quick-twitch reactions. That arm should be a plus on the right side, and he has the athleticism (once he gets the requisite number of reps in) to make that double play pivot.

Orelvis will return to Buffalo, where he finished last season, and his play will determine his progress. He may take some additional time to develop as a big leaguer, but his is a 30+ HR guy in the making.

1. Arjun Nimmala, SS

The 2023 1st rounder was obviously overmatched (as were a number of his teammates) in the spring breakout game against the Yankees, but he showed some promising glimpses of the future.

Nimmala was a much-lauded prospect who was named the Florida Gatorade HS Player of the Year last season. Scouting reports say he has a refined approach, and some natural loft in his swing. While he’s an average runner, he has the instincts, arm, and the hands for SS.

There is a high risk/high reward element to his profile. The swing can get a bit long, and as he showed in the breakout game, he can be susceptible to spin. But this could be a guy who replaces Tiedemann (once he graduates) as the best prospect in the system.

Nimmala will likely start the season at Low A Dunedin, with a second half move to Vancouver in the cards if he comes anywhere close to filling the potential detailed in his scouting reports. He could hold down SS for a long time in the Blue Jays lineup, although that would be several years away.

4. Brandon Barriera, LHP

Barriera has always had a chip on his shoulder. On draft day, 2022, when he lasted until the 22nd pick of the first round (Barriera had shut things down in early May in order to protect what he and his advisors thought would be a higher spot in the draft), he told media that the teams that passed on him would come to regret that.

Likely stung by concerns about his size, Barriera focussed on strength training after the 2022 season, but his athleticism suffered in the process. Perhaps as a result, he spent time on the IL with three different injuries last year, and his 2023 campaign fell far short of expectations. Reports I had from observers who saw him pitch openly questioned the body.

This past offseason appears to have been much more successful; Barriera appears to have found the right balance between strength, flexibility, and cardio training. Certainly, in the breakout game, he appeared much more trim, and he flashed that sweeper that could replace Tiedemann’s as the best in the system.

BA calls Barriera a “risky prospect with a wide range of outcomes.” Much was expected last year, and given his injury history and the need to possibly bring him around slowly, he may start in Dunedin until the weather warms up. Vancouver appears to be where he’ll spend the bulk of the season. As for his long-term future, it’s still hard to predict whether he’ll be a mid-rotation guy or more of a high-leverage bullpen arm.

1. Addison Barger, RF

Barger had a breakout 2022, but right elbow issues seemed to set his progress back last year. In reality, his hit tool - already one of the strongest ones in his kit - improved. Barger showed improved pitch recognition, establishing a career high in walks as a result. He cut down a bit on his swing, which did trade some flyballs for groundballs, but he put more hard hit balls in play than at any other point in his career. His lefthanded bat is a rare commodity in the system, and adds to his potential value.

While he definitely has the arm for the left side of the infield, he seemed very comfortable in right field when switched there last September. He’s not speedy, but picks up the ball off the bat well, and has the arm to make runners think twice about rounding 2nd and heading for 3rd.

After being on the cusp of a big league job a year ago, Barger will return to Buffalo. He profiles as a versatile utility guy with some pop in his bat.

1. Kendry Rojas, LHP

Of all the Florida guys from last year, Rojas is the one we’re the most eager to see this season, mainly because we didn’t see a whole lot of him. I couldn’t get a confirmation, but I had heard that visa issues were why we didn’t see him move up to Vancouver for the C’s stretch run.

As a 20-year old, Rojas led the Florida State League in several pitching categories. His fastball sits 93-94 and touches 95, and his slider flashes as plus. But inconsistent mechanics have led to command problems.

Rojas was a Cuban free agent signed in 2020; he missed much of the 2022 season with a lat injury. So he’s still relatively new in pitching terms. The organization has patiently brought him along. If he sorts out those mechanics, this could be a breakout year.

Reports suggest Rojas projects as a 4th starter. I see him more as a set up bullpen guy. He should start the season in Vancouver.

1. Leo Jimenez, SS

If you’re a regular reader of mine, please pardon me repeating a familiar story, but…..when the Jays signed Jimenez, one of the best prospects to ever come out of Panama, Blue Jays VP and Director of International Ops Andrew Tinnish told me, “if there’s one guy in our organization who could play big league shortstop one day, it’s him.”

Jimenez’ development has been slowed by injury, and he’s heading into his final year of options. He’s not a flashy defender, but he makes all the plays (some stumbles in his spring training debut this year aside). Long term, he may be a better fit on the other side of 2nd. Jimenez has increased his average exit velocity for three straight seasons, and he has shown glimpses of becoming a decent, bottom-third-of-the-order hitter. But let’s face it: he’s not replacing Bo Bichette anytime soon.

Jimenez’ chief value now would be as added insurance this year if Bo is on the IL for an extended stay (and at that, one would think Ernie Clement would be the first choice), or as trade bait at the deadline.

Jimenez split his time at New Hampshire and Buffalo last year, and will return to the latter to start the season. He could become a good utility player, likely with another big league team.

1. Davis Schneider

Few rookies have made as big an impact as Schneider did last season. But he also went 0-34 down the stretch as the league adjusted to him, so the question is obvious this season: which Schneider will we see?

Schneider is a bat-first player with three true outcome features. He won’t chase, has a bit of a long swing, and was exposed by offspeed stuff, but when he connects, the result is usually loud. Defensively, his fringy skills make him more suited to 2nd, and the Jays have given him some time in LF, but it’s doubtful we see a lot of him there.

This is a 28th round pick who turned his career around late in the 2022 season. Schneider found a way to get to his barrel, and when from org guy to rookie sensation in a matter of months. So while I think he’s not a long-term fit with the big team, I wouldn’t be surprised if he carves out a decent big league career.

1. Alan Roden, OF

As much as it’s easy to be critical of the organization for their recent drafts, Roden is very much a drafting and development success story. He hit his way to AAA last year, and made a strong impression as a non-roster invitee before making his way to minor league camp.

Roden is not flashy, does not have one outstanding tool, but has a high baseball IQ (he has a physics degree, and as you regular readers know, his parents are both professors and had baseball not come calling, he might be halfway through a doctorate right now), a hit tool that just keeps on improving, and is firmly in the plans for the future.

Roden has worked extensively on his stance, and while he’s modified it a bit, it’s still on the unusual side. But it lets him get to his barrel, and once he learns how to get more loft - most of his hard hit balls are line drives - he could fit the power profile of an everyday right fielder.

When he was drafted, there were thoughts that he was a money-saving pick (Roden signed for under slot) to help free up the funds to sign Barriera; if that was the case, he’s already largely exceeded expectations.

He finished last season at New Hampshire after starting in Vancouver, and he should return to the Eastern League to begin 2024. He’s perhaps not an all star in the making, but should be a solid hit-over-power guy in some organization. But a year ago most observers would not have rated him that highly. It might be interesting to see where he’s at a year from now.

10. Connor Cooke, RHP

Two years ago, the 2021 10th round pick looked like just another lower level arm. But he broke out in a huge way in 2023, striking out 80 hitters in 44 innings at three levels. Outside of the 40-man now, Cooke very much looks like a future big league reliever.

One of the best athletes in the system, Cooke throws three pitches, all of which grade at times as plus. He throws a fastball that sits 95-96 and can touch 97 from a release point that is hard for RHH to pick up. Cooke also throws a high spin rate sweeper, and a hard slider. He struggled a bit with his command at the end of the season with Buffalo, but his performance last year certainly caught the organization’s attention.

He profiles as a back of the bullpen guy in Toronto one day, but will continue to refine his command in Buffalo to start the season.

1. Enmanuel Bonilla, CF

Finally, a guy to maybe get excited about. That’s how I would characterize Bonilla, regarded as one of the most polished hitters in the 2023 international free agent class.

Bonilla is still developing a feel for his barrel, but he’s already produced some loud exit velos. He can put the ball in the air, and pull with regularity, according to scouting reports. An average runner now, he likely will outgrow the position as he ages.

There’s a ton of upside with this kid. He’s a potential impact bat, but is still some time away. He played in the DSL last year, and will be stateside this year. He may spend some time in Extended before suiting up for Dunedin. When the D-Jays are (finally) online at Bradenton in late May, he’ll be one worth watching.

1. Yosver Zulueta, RHP

In 2022, Zulueta made up for lost development time in a hurry, pitching at three levels, and probably elbowed his way into consideration for a big league bullpen job. Moved fulltime into a bullpen role last year, he struggled with the command of his electric fastball, and spent some time in Florida at the pitching lab in August to get things back together.

Zulueta was a much more effective pitcher when he returned, but he’s been surpassed on the depth charts by Cooke. Fastball command has been and will likely continue to be his biggest issues. An inability to locate it has made his secondary pitches less effective. One would have thought his performance last September had him back on track, but he’s struggled with the big team this spring, and will start the season in Buffalo.

1. Landon Maroudis, RHP

The scouting reports for Maroudis, considered one of the best Florida HS prospects, are positively glowing.

Maroudis, who did not pitch after being drafted in the 4th round last June, checks a lot of boxes. He has that long, lean, and athletic build that you can project a lot of innings on one day. His fastball already sits 90-93/touches 96, with plenty of room to grow. His change up is his best secondary, a pitch that will only become more effective as he adds velo.

Maroudis in all likelihood begins in Extended, then moves to the Complex League (which will now begin on May 5, six weeks earlier than before), before probably seeing some time in Dunedin. Chances to get online eyes on him might be limited.

1. Chad Dallas, RHP

No starting pitcher prospect in the organization improved their status as much as Dallas did last year.

Perhaps stung a bit by having to repeat High A, Dallas added velo last year, and was much different pitcher. Promoted to AA, he added a cutter, and continued to miss bats and dodge barrels. With the trades of Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein at the deadline last year, Dallas is probably the second best pitching prospect (at least at the upper levels).

While he came a long way last year, he’s a back of the rotation guy at best. That cutter, paired with his slider (his best secondary, maybe even his best pitch period) could be a really effective relief combination.

1. Josh Kasevich

There are two ways to look at the 2022 draft from a Blue Jays perspective: they either missed on several of their top picks, or did the best they could with a class that had high-end talent, but a significant drop off after the first round.

Kasevich was a safe pick at 60th overall in the 2nd round. Drafted out of Oregon, he was one of the hardest hitters to strike out in Divison One ball, a trend he’s continued - his 5.2% whiff rate was the lowest in the organization. But with that contact over power profile comes a cost, and in Kasevich’s case, it’s a 52% GB rate last year - second highest in the system. Kasevich makes contact, but not much of it is of the hard variety.

Defensively, Kasevich may not be flashy, but he’s smooth and polished, a solid up-the-middle guy who can play 3rd as well. He anchored Vancouver’s Northwest League championship defence, and will probably move around a bit at New Hampshire as well this year. He’s a fringy, utility-type MLB player in the future, unless he can translate some of that contact into pop.

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Being a blogger can be tough when it comes to gathering information. I will never fill my posts with stats, because I figure you readers can always look them up yourselves. Those of you who have kindly donated to Buy Me a Coffee, I believe, are looking for more in-depth stuff. And that it was I endeavour to do, although getting that inside info can be a challenge. Some media outlets steer clear of bloggers (understandably so; there’s some lousy and lazy writing out there), but some don’t (Blake Murphy of The FAN 590, I’m looking at you, my friend). Reaching out to high profile prospect writers can be hit-or-miss, and getting in touch with front office staff can be tough (Joe Sclafani, Cory Popham, and Joe Sheehan have been very notable exceptions; I am very grateful for their time, and prep thoroughly for interviews with them and their valuable time). But I will always try to bring you stuff that’s hard to find anywhere else. I love that challenge. As I have written earlier, I have trips to see Vancouver and New Hampshire play this year, and will likely make one to Buffalo as well. You can bet that my notebook will be full of information.