Future Blue Jays Newsletter

Let’s go prospecting, shall we?

With the minor league season now two months old, it’s time to take a closer look at the progress of a number of prospects in the system whose stock has risen.

Arjun Nimmala

The 2023 1st round pick has been exactly as advertised for the Vancouver Canadians. Despite being one of the youngest players in High A, he’s in the Top 10 in numerous categories, and despite being in more of a lower run environment in the Northwest League.

Nimmala has cut down on the strikeouts, shown plus power, and played sterling defence. He’s the reigning NWL Player of the Week after going 9-25, with a double, triple, two home runs, six runs scored, six RBI, four walks, and a pair of stolen bases. All of his tools were on display. Talk about a difference a year makes - Nimmala has refined his approach, and this AB last week really demonstrated it.

If there were areas to shore up in Nimmala’s game, it would still involve his approach. Perhaps as a result of how he’s been pitched to, Nimmala is well down the leaderboard in pitches seen per at bat. Many factors can influence this, and there can be a fine line between patience and passivity, but being a bit more selective can only help him. But the Blue Jays have to be thrilled with the amount of contact (he’s cut his K rate by a third, and has a whiff rate down to just over 10%.). On defence, while his average speed may move him over the 3rd one day, he shows great instincts, footwork, transfer, and a plus arm. He rushes the odd throw, but that one we can put off to age for now.

I asked Canadians’ broadcaster Chris Georges, who has seen about as much as Arjun as anyone this seaosn, for his thoughts on the rising star:

The next step for Nimmala will be New Hampshire, probably near the end of June. At AA, the fastballs will be more on the black, the breaking pitches harder to pick up, and the contact he will face on defence a lot harder. So, there may be an adjustment period, because the jump between High A and AA is significant, but considering Nimmala’s struggles of a year ago, the future looks very bright indeed.

Gage Stanifer

He had his troubles with the strike zone with Dunedin last year, but he’s harnessed his command, particularly his slider (his best pitch) this season in a repeat Florida State League performance. Pitching behind Trey Yesvage in a piggyback role, Stanifer has been every bit as good as Yesavage and his draft mate, 2nd round pick Khal Stephen. The Indiana native, who reportedly turned down a college commitment to Cincinnati to sign with Toronto after being taken 18 picks after Nimmala in 2023, joined Yesvage and Stephen on the plane ride to Oregon when the trio was promoted to High A last week.

The athletic, gym rat Stanifer throws from a three-quarter arm slot with a short arm stroke which tends to create uncomfortable ABs for hitters on both sides of the plate. “He’s been one of the best pitchers in all of minor league baseball, but it’s no surprise to anyone who’s spent time with him,” Dunedin Manager Gil Kim told the D-Jays’ broadcaster Eli Fishman just before the promotion, “given (his) work ethic, drive, commitment, and stuff.”

Stanifer, like his elevated teammates, had a little difficulty adjusting to the lack of ABS in his first outing, and it made me appreciate once more how much the challenge system has sharpened everyone’s knowledge of the strike zone in Florida. He had some help from his bullpen to escape a bases loaded, one out jam in his last inning of work in his second Vancouver outing, but he struck out six of the first seven hitters he faced, and has K’d 13 in only a half dozen NWL innings.

Edward Duran

Now we get to the good stuff. Duran, according to reports from Florida, had a fantastic spring after an offseason reconfiguring his body with two-a-day workouts, but the results didn’t carry over into the season, where he was repeating Dunedin. But that hard work paid off in May - he’s currently riding an 18-game hit streak, and has slashed .342/.417/.458.

Defensively, Duran has put in the work and it is showing up behind the plate. He’s an excellent blocker, framer, presenter of pitches, game manager, and pitchers love to work with him. It’s not reasonable to expect he’ll put up an OPS of over .900 at the next level, but he’s been one of the most pleasant surprises in the system, and should be on his way to the west coast soon.

Sam Shaw

Like Duran, Shaw is a great scouting and development story, with a nice Elbows Up Canadian twist.

Shaw is a dirtbag, a guy whose uniform is always dirty - a reflection of how he plays the game. Baseball America’s scouting report after naming him the Blue Jays 29th-ranked prospect last fall:

Shaw is a hit-over-everything second baseman with an advanced knowledge of the strike zone and excellent barrel control. His carrying tool is hitting, with a swing designed for a high rate of line drives and balls to the gaps. He is rarely fooled and shows the ability to spit on breaking stuff on the black. Shaw should hit for high averages while running near equal strikeout and walk totals. His power is below-average and his best-struck balls come in the form of line drives. Due to his build, he’s unlikely to push below-average power totals. He’s an average runner whose stride is limited by his diminutive frame. He shows average fielding skills at second base and a fringe-average arm.

Shaw has had an exceptional, breakout May, recording a 1.109 OPS, walking more than he has struck out. He has easily been Dunedin’s best hitter this month, and is 2nd in the FSL in OBP and Slugging; Shaw has reached base safely in 25 of 27 games thus far. Like Duran, he no doubt will face challenges from pitchers with better stuff and command when he moves to his home province shortly, but his blossoming has been another great story in the system. “He’s absolutely obsessed with the game of baseball,” Gil Kim told Eli Fishman. “You see it on the field - he’s a heady player, he’s always asking questions, always looking into small details, and that really helps him on the field. He can beat you in so many different ways.”

Juaron Watts-Brown

Yes, Trey Yesavage and Khal Stephen have been dominant, but Watts-Brown, the Jays 3rd round choice two years ago, has been one of the best pitchers in the system. Prior to his promotion last week to make room on Vancouver’s roster for the newcomers, JWB led all of High A in K/9 (14.7) and whiff rate (18.9%). He showed plenty of promise last season, but walks got the better of him when he reached High A. This season, he has cut the free passes in half, while missing more bats. In his AA debut, he did run afoul of New Hampshire’s short RF porch, but flashed that slider that is among the best in the organization.

I asked Blue Jays MiLB Pitching Development Coordinator Ricky Meinhold what the difference was for Watts-Brown this year, and the answer was simple: going after hitters. “It’s the focus on being relentless in the strike zone,” Meinhold said. “The mindset of owning the strike zone instead of trying to get them to swing and miss and chase a strikeout. It’s been crucial.”

I’ve talked to some evaluators who are less than thrilled with JWB, pegging him as more of a relief candidate long term. While that may be true, he’s improved his athleticism tremendously, and fields his position very well. The FB/SL pairing is legit; coming up with an effective third pitch will be key.

Trey Yesavage

Now we’re talking……Yesavage leads all of minor league baseball in strikeouts (74), K rate (46.3%), and all of full season ball in whiff rate (21.8%). The numbers really do tell the story of his dominance.

Of course, you could argue that a first round pick from a major college program should rack up the Ks against Single A hitters, and you’d be absolutely right; but after a brief hiccup with the non ABS Northwest League balls and strikes calls, Yesavage was back to his old ways in his second NWL start, allowing only one hit and fanning 9 in 4 IP.

Fastball command is Yesavage’s calling card, and what a main offering it is. With his over-the-top delivery, he gets plenty of eye level-changing downward action on it.

Again, Yesavage should be dominating at this level. The Jays stress putting together a foundation for success with player’s on-field and off-field efforts, which is the main reason (along with the better weather) for keeping Yesavage in Florida for what seemed like a long time. The true test of that base will be when Yesavage makes his way to AA in another two months.

Khal Stephen

The final member of the Dunedin triumvirate to make his way to the Northwest League has been no less impressive than the other two members.

Stephen, like Yesavage, was much more advanced than his Florida State League opposition, striking out 48 hitters in 39 hitters while issuing only 7 walks. He too had a bit of a bump in his first start at the A+ level, hitting his pitch count after only 3 innings. But the expectation is that Stephen will return to form against Northwest League hitters in his next start.

Yohendrick Pinango

Pinango is making the deal that finally rid the Blue Jays of Nate Pearson look like a steal. Pinango leads the Eastern League in OPS and OBP, and has been the leading cog in a very moribund New Hampshire offence.

Pinango is a bat-first player who seldom chases. He uses the whole field, and there is some loft to his swing. Short, stocky, and a below-average runner, LF Pinango is limited defensively. Still, he’s been a bright light in what has been to date a long season in New Hampshire, and makes one think of Melky Cabrera when searching for a comp.

Finally……

If this wasn’t quite enough to whet your appetite for Blue Jays farm system information, you’re in luck: the second episode of the Around the Nest podcast, featuring the play-by-play voices of the Toronto affiliates, is out for your listening pleasure.