Future Blue Jays Newsletter - Mid Season Update

Orelvis’ Suspension

Before we begin, I thought I would share a few thoughts about Orelvis Martinez’ 80-game suspension for a positive test of a performance-enhancing drug.

Let’s leave aside Orelvis’ statement, except to say - wouldn’t it be refreshing if a player just said, “I am responsible for everything I put in my body”?

The Blue Jays had been hit by a rash of PED suspensions at the Dominican Complex prior to COVID. The International Operations, Player Development, Sport Science, and Medical staffs worked hard to provide resources, guidance, and support for their players in the aftermath of those positive tests.

The biggest issue here perhaps is that at 22 (and having lost a year to COVID), Orelvis is still developing, and very much needs to play. Yes, he can take part in regular workouts down at the Minor League Complex at Dunedin, and I have no doubt the coaching staff there will be as creative as they can to help put together innovative and close-to-real-life simulation training for him, but there’s no substitute for being in a lineup day-to-day, and until his suspension is up in late September, he can’t be part of one at any level.

On top of that, Orelvis is learning a new position, having more or less moved full-time to 2nd Base late last season. And as we’ve seen with Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, and Spencer Horwitz in the field over the past ten days, there’s a pretty steep learning curve involved with learning a new position. Yes, he is a middle infielder by trade, but Orelvis has proven over the course of his career to be anything but a gifted defender, and plenty of work needs to be done in learning the nuances of a new position - not just making plays fielding balls, but learning how to take cutoffs, making challenging across-the-body throws, the double play pivot, and crossing the bag at 2nd to receive a catcher’s throw all take time and reps to hone.

Yes, he’s eligible to come back when there are about a half dozen games left in the season (the MiLB one will be over), but for all intents and purposes, his season is now a write-off. And while the chances of the big club being in a playoff position are slim at the moment, there’s now one less trade chip the organization has for any deadline deal.

Lazaro Estrada

It’s a big deal in this day and age to throw a no-hitter, even a 7-inning one as Estrada did for Vancouver last week at Tri Cities.

I didn’t watch the game, because Tri Cities relies on a camera up behind home plate for much of their video shots, leaving the viewer with little idea of a pitcher’s command, or the movement on his pitches.

But I did see Estrada’s most recent start, and they hype is easy to understand. His elevated four-seamer sits in the mid 90s with arm-side run, and High A hitters are no match for it. When paired with his curve (one of the best in the system), Estrada appears to be headed for bigger and better things.

The Cuban, who was signed as an IFA in 2018, missed all of 2020 due to COVID, and much of the next two seasons recovering from Tommy John. He mostly started for Dunedin last year, striking out an incredible 103 batters in 76 innings (against only 23 walks), and all of his outings since coming off the IL at the start of May have been starts. But that two-pitch mix is tantalizing to think of in a relief role. Estrada is Rule 5 eligible this fall, and it will be interesting to see what the organization has in store for him in the second half.

Ryan McCarty

McCarty, an undrafted free agent who played college ball at a Division III school, was clearly Vancouver’s best player when I saw him in April. Promoted to New Hampshire, all he’s done is hit, posting a .952 OPS in 18 games - he’s already hit one more HR in that time than he did in Vancouver.

So, is the versatile McCarty (he can play 1st, 2nd, and 3rd) a future big leaguer? At 25, he’s something of a longshot, but he’s also a tribute to scouting, development, and his own personal grit and resilience.

Will Robertson

We’ve been waiting so long for Clemson product (and one time teammate of Alan Roden) to produce on a sustained level, and with 44 HRs (and couning) over the past two and a half seasons, maybe Robertson is finally on the cusp of a big league job.

There is a streaky element to his offensive game, and defensively, he’s limited to RF, but you can always use a power-hitting left-handed bat. His profile is power over hit, and there’s some swing-and-miss to his game, but if the Blue Jays decide they’re out of it and looking to re-tool, maybe there’s a chance Robertson could be in their plans. While he’s the same age as Spencer Horwitz, his skill set might need some time to adjust to the big league level.

Peyton Williams

The 2022 7th round pick has had his progress slowed by injuries over the past two seasons, but he’s healthy now and providing some impact in the middle of Vancouver’s lineup.

At 6’5”/255, the comparisons between Williams and former Blue Jay Rowdy Tellez are fairly obvious, but believe it or not, Williams is a more athletic version of a slugging behemoth:

Is he a future big leaguer? The odds are long - a player his size has to work extra hard to stay healthy, maintain his flexibility, and deal with the inevitable slowdown that comes with aging. It’s just good to see him back on the field, and if he continues on his current trajectory, the Blue Jays will have to find a way to get him to AA.

Top Prospect Talk

Let’s move on to give a quick update on each of the Top 10 (according to MLB Pipeline) Blue Jays prospects.

Ricky Tiedemann

The best ability, the say, is availability. In it’s in that latter regard that Tiedemann, a big-bodied pitcher who seemed indestructible as he rocketed through the minors in 2022, has struggled ever since.

Tiedemann is back and throwing. His first outing ten days ago in the Complex League did not go as well as anyone - most likely himself - would have liked. Tiedemann’s next appearance was in the Florida State League, where he appeared to right himself. His four-seamer was consistently sitting at 97, and his sweeper was its usual bat-missing self.

In my last newsletter, Blue Jays Minor League Pitching Coordinator Cory Popham said, in effect, that when Tiedemann returns to Buffalo, the training wheels will pretty much be off. There will be no pitch-limited outing, just an expectation to work as deep into games as he can. The Blue Jays are also encouraging Tiedemann to use his changeup more often. With the team all but out of contention, there’s little sense in rushing him back - in fact, if all goes well, some September starts in a less pressurized environment might be the perfect way to introduce him to the big leagues.

One thing is for certain: Tiedemann has to prove that he can stay healthy for prolonged stretches.

Orelvis Martinez

Really, I think I’ve said enough.

Arjun Nimmala

If you were looking to be cheered up by reading this newsletter, I’m truly sorry.

Nimmala tantalized during spring training, showing the upside and skills on both sides of the ball that had scouts drooling.

After a brief Complex League audition after the draft last year, the player development staff (after considerable internal debate) decided to challenge him with an aggressive assignment to Dunedin to start 2024. After recording 4 hits (including his first HR) in his first three FSL games, Nimmala struggled with spin for the next six weeks, and was mercifully sent to the Development List in mid-May after slashing .167/.280/.306. Even though he went 2-4 with a HR in his final game, everyone agreed it was time for him to regroup.

Back in action in the FCL this month, Nimmala isn’t seeing a ton of pitches in the strike zone, as his .235/.500/.647 line would suggest. In limited playing time as the Blue Jays ease him back into the swing of things, four of the five hits he recorded were for extra bases. That earned him a return to Dunedin, where he did this in his fourth and final AB of the night in his first game:

Nimmala may have been a victim of the new MiLB rules dictating how many active players an organization may have at one time. Or, alternatively, the Blue Jays felt he was ready for the challenge. What’s curious is that this was the first year the FCL started in May under those new rules (as opposed to mid-June). Why did they not hold him back in Extended until then? As someone in the Jays organization told me, there are times when the short-season level is really missed. Maybe this doesn’t pertain directly to Nimmala, but it does underscore the shift in developmental timelines all organizations face, and that maybe some are going to get things wrong the odd time.

As one of the youngest players in full-season ball before he was put on the Devo List, there is absolutely no reason to rush Nimmala. He’s still learning about the day-to-day life of a pro ball player.

Brandon Barriera

Wow. I may have to stop writing if this keeps up.

There were many question marks that emerged about Barriera last year, and unfortunately blowing out his elbow an inning and third this year did little to dispel that. We’re now looking at two mostly wasted seasons for the 23rd pick in the 2022 draft.

While he won’t be throwing for some time yet after undergoing a UCL brace surgery last month, the good news is that if the recovery goes well, we should see him start the season on time next year.

Let’s face it, there’s lots of upside to this kid: can hit 97, shows command of all of his pitches, and shows a great feel for pitching. But there have been concerns about his conditioning - the club has not entirely happy with how he showed up for training camp in 2023, but to Barriera’s credit, he redoubled his conditioning and strength efforts last offseason.

We may still be looking at a big league pitcher here, but Barriera has a long road ahead of him.

Leo Jimenez

Let’s face it - the future is now for the Panamanian short stop, who is out of options after this season.

If Jimenez had not been on the IL himself (concussion protocol) when Bo Bichette went down, there’s every chance that he, and not Orelvis, would have been up to take Bo’s place.

Since coming off the IL, Jimenez has posted a 965 OPS, a fun but highly unsustainable mark that was caused largely by a woeful Scranton/Wilkes-Barre pitching staff. But there’s no doubt he’s hitting the ball with much more authority - Jimenez is just one off his career high in HRs, and is walking almost as much as he’s striking out.

The question surrounding Jimenez usually involves his health - his career high in games played is 94. But if the club is looking to re-tool and move Bichette either to a new position or team, this is the logical replacement. Maybe he’s not the sparkplug leadoff guy the club envisioned when they signed him in 2017, but Jimenez is a serviceable bottom third of the order bat who can solidify the SS position for the club.

Addison Barger

Barger’s MLB debut has been about what we thought it would be: there have been some flashes of pop, but some shaky performances in the field, and a lot of strike outs at the plate. The latter should not come as a huge surprise, because Barger was struggling to hit velocity at AAA.

But there is still plenty to be optimistic about, as long as one’s expectations for Barger are realistic. No, he’s not a replacement for George Springer, nor is he the Blue Jays everyday 3rd baseman; he is a left-handed that you can be a power threat off the bench, and a glove that can play several positions adequately at least.

It will not be a surprise to see Berger return the Buffalo, but it appears the blue Jays are set to give him plenty of runway this time around.

Alan Roden

If there’s one thing Spencer Horwitz has proven in his short time as a big leaguer, it’s that bat-to-ball skills matter. And the Blue Jays may have another player of his type that could one day provide an infusion of contact and on-base skills (and more pop) in Roden.

Like Horwitz, Roden sees a lot of pitches/AB, and doesn’t chase a whole lot. He made adjustments to his swing last season, and understandably took some time to get used to it at the start of the season with New Hampshire. Promoted to Buffalo earlier in the month, he was hampered somewhat by an issue, but has hit better over the past week.

There was some thought in spring training that Roden might make his MLB debut this season, but maybe that was a bit optimistic. But his time at the big league level is coming.

Enmanuel Bonilla

After a promising 2023 season in the DSL, the prized IFA signing was moved stateside for this season, and got off to a good start in the Complex League, to the tune of an .822 OPS.

This month he’s cut that figure almost in half.

Is that reason to panic? Of course not. Just turned 18 in January, time is a quantity Bonilla and the Blue Jays have in buckets. There was concern at the time of his signing about Toronto spending that kind of bonus money for a guy who was projected to be a corner OF, but there’s big time punch in that bat. Since he’s out of the spotlight in the Complex League, we don’t get any news about Bonilla save for the intrepid souls who brave the overwhelming heat and underwhelming play at that level. But there’s little doubt the teenager is making all kinds of on-field and off-field adjustments right now. Adversity, in the eyes of player development staff, is not necessarily a bad thing if a player can learn from it.

Adam Macko

The sky seemed the limit for the Albertan until his last few starts, but he’s come back to earth a bit in June, posting a 7.33 ERA over his last three outings. That figure is quite misleading, though - New Hampshire’s bullpen allowed some inherited runners to score as the club has been slowly upping Macko’s pitch count to let him pitch into the 7th inning.

But what a scouting and development success story he has been - thought to be a throw-in in the Teoscar Hernandez deal with the Mariners, Macko has not missed a start as a Blue Jays farmhand, and has shown true back-of-the-rotation potential, and with Tiedemann on the shelf was arguably the best starting prospect in the system. Like Tiedemann, the player devo staff would like to see him use his changeup more. If I have one concern, it’s that his velo is down a bit (from mid 90s to 91-92), but I’ve been told not to worry too much about that one.

Kendry Rojas

I was really looking forward to watching Rojas in action with his promotion to Vancouver to start the season. But after two outings totalling only 5.2 innings, he went on the IL.

Rojas is back in action now on a rehab stint. When he returns to the Northwest League, it will probably be as a starter as they try to both stretch him out and make up for missed development time. Rojas is still very much an unknown commodity, but he has an electric arm, and MLB Pipeline claims he has as much upside as anyone in the system.