Future Blue Jays Newsletter - Who Wants a Promotion?

With the minor league season in most leagues reaching the end of the first half of play (gasp!) later this week, it’s time to take a look at which Blue Jays prospects might be in line for a move up to the next level.

As I have written, the process of promotion is not simply a matter of looking up stats on milb.com. It’s very much a group effort, with a lengthy email chain of discussions involving player development, sport science, and individual team staff. There must be a consensus that the player concerned has both the physical and emotional tools to succeed (even if not at first) at the next level. It’s not one or two hot weeks that moves a player up, but a larger body of work that involves progress on his developmental goals, which encompasses pre and post game work, as well as in-game performance.

With the ascension of Spencer Horwitz and Addison Barger to the big league club, a domino effect of promotions throughout the system has taken place. While there were several players coming of the IL, and the addition of P Braydon Fisher (from the Cavan Biggio deal with the Dodgers), the corresponding moves were OF Alan Roden to Buffalo, and UT Glenn Santiago from Vancouver to take his place. Roden’s promotion was very much deserved, even though his numbers to date were off last year’s production. Off-season adjustments to his batting stance, as Roden told us in the last edition, took a bit of time to get used to, but an .840 OPS so far this month suggests that things have come online for him.

So, who’s next? The most likely next move would be Adam Macko from AA to AAA. Macko really is a scouting and development success story. No, the Blue Jays didn’t draft the Albertan, but they certainly knew who he was, and kept tabs on him in the Northwest League before acquiring him along with Eric Swanson in the Teoscar Hernandez deal with the Mariners. Macko’s injury history and pending R5 status may have scared some teams off, but not the Blue Jays. It’s a testament to the sport sci, player devo, and coaching staffs (not to mention Macko himself) that he hasn’t missed a start in a year and a half. A Jays staffer told me that after his next-to-last outing in Erie that “Adam looked like a big leaguer,” and it’s hard to argue that. Macko very much deserves a chance to see what he can do at the next level.

Some may think Orelvis Martinez may be next in line, and while his time is surely coming, I just get the feeling it’s not now. Of the trio of top Buffalo position player prospects, his game perhaps will need more seasoning, and with Horwitz now getting reps at 2nd, and Barger getting some at 3rd, I’m not sure there’s room just yet. I will be speaking with farm director Joe Sclafani (hopefully by the end of the month), so maybe we’ll have a better idea of Orelvis’ timeline after that.

Ahead of Martinez, then, the most probable promotion would be Dunedin RHP Juaron Watts-Brown. The 3rd round pick from last year’s draft, who most reports suggest is better suited to a bullpen role, is being stretched out as a starter to help accelerate his development. He had some issues with walks in May, which is one of the reasons he’s still in the Florida State League, but he shouldn’t be for long. Fastball command is what he appears to be working on primarily, as his usage is heavily skewed to that pitch - there doesn’t appear to be a ton of movement on it, and his command of it can be shaky, but his velo has steadily ticked up to the point where he’s topping out at just over 95 mph. I would really love for the great fans of Vancouver, whose club has scuffled to a 27-32 record, to have JWB join his former Dunedin rotation mate Connor O’Halloran in the second half.

I don’t know exactly where Eric Pardinho would fit in this whole promotion scenario, but you would have to think he’ll be in Buffalo before the end of the month. He really has been the story of the system this season, going from prospect to suspect and back - if you had told me a year ago that he wouldn’t be in the organization today, I would not have been surprised, but credit is due the player development staff and Eric for sticking to the plan. Working on a streak of 20 outings without giving up an earned run, Pardinho has had mastery over AA hitters. He’s being used in late inning situations, leverage, twice in three days, and now New Hampshire manager Cesar Martin has started bringing him in the middle of innings in an attempt to put out a fire. With a mid 90s fastball, wipeout splitter, and slider, Pardinho looks like a big league reliever in the making.

If Pardinho has been the story of the year, his teammate SS Josh Kasevich has been the biggest surprise. Already possessed of elite bat-to-ball skills (a trait the Blue Jays covet), he’s adding some pop; he did hit two HRs last week, so that may be translating into more extra base hit potential. Geoff Pontes of Baseball America mentioned on Blake Murphy’s show on the FAN 590 Toronto that Kasevich as a hard hit rate of just over 48%, which is exceptional. The only caveat is that his ground ball rate is the same, although it’s lower than it has been in years past. There is no doubt about Kasevich’s defence - he’s a very polished defender, and can play three infield positions. With Leo Jimenez just off the IL at Buffalo, and Orelvis, Michael Turconi, Riley Tirotta, and even Rafael Lantigua already on the Bisons roster, the up-the-middle position is a bit on the crowded side. The Blue Jays over the past few seasons have focused on acquiring that sort of player, with bottlenecks on the Niagara Frontier the result. Unless Kasevich forces the issue, it seems he’s in AA for now.

Vancouver OF Dasan Brown, who has spent almost two full calendar years in the Northwest League, appeared on the verge of a promotion before going on the IL last week. Dasan finally seems to be showing signs of improved pitch recognition to go with his world-class speed.

Dunedin INF Manuel Beltre is a player who seemed to have plateaued at Dunedin, but his bat is coming alive, and his leadership skills (even at the tender age of 20) are second to none. I don’t know if he’s under consideration for a move to Vancouver, but I’d sure like that to happen for him. He’s a good kid.

New Hampshire LHP Trenton Wallace does not throw hard, but everything he does throw tends to move from his funky arm slot. He can get hit hard when he’s not around the edges of the plate, but he keeps hitters off balance. Buffalo sure could use another starter.