On Developing a Bullpen…..

It was a throw away line, really, something I tossed out to Blue Jays President and CEO Mark Shapiro, who had welcomed a humble blogger to his office to talk about the farm system several years ago.

As Shapiro stole glances at his watch that let me know our half hour was coming to a close as sailboats glided by out his office window, which looks out upon Lake Ontario and the Islands, I mentioned an article I had read recently in Baseball Prospectus about how building a bullpen is a General Manager’s toughest job.

“Really?” he responded. “I would say it’s building a starting rotation.”

And while the big league reliever remains among baseball’s most volatile commodities, Shapiro’s comment spoke volumes to me about the organization’s approach to player development, and even though the interview took place four years ago, it has stuck with me.

Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star wrote recently about the Blue Jays difficulties in building a top-notch bullpen, and he’s not wrong. Tim Mayza and Jordan Romano were the only homegrown relievers on the 25-man when the club was eliminated by Seattle, a club with a lockdown ‘pen that signed/drafted only one of those power arms. And while the Blue Jays acquired a key member of that group in Erik Swanson, the bullpen has been upgraded, but as Chisholm said:

 The question is whether that move will be enough. The bullpen might not be the weakness it was a year or two ago, but it’s certainly not a strength, at least not in comparison to most contenders.

So, why haven’t the Blue Jays outside of Mayza and Romano, and Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, and even Miguel Castro before them, been able to develop those kind of high velo, bat-missing guys?

One answer may lie in the club’s preference for starting pitchers. If an amateur player can command his fastball, spin a breaking ball, and get hitters out, the Blue Jays will be more likely to draft and develop him over a guy with an impressive (and higher velo) fastball he can’t harness. And when the former gets into their system, the Blue Jays are likely to continue to develop him as a starter, to see if he can hold his stuff over 5-6 innings, building his arm up in the process. It’s a path that Sanchez, Osuna, Castro, and Romano followed until the big leagues. It’s also one that Yosver Zulueta, who rode his easy gas fastball to AAA this year, followed, and while there are projections he’ll become a bullpen guy, the Blue Jays have indicated he’ll continue on that starting track to start the season.

But is it all doom and gloom? Are there no arms on the horizon?

Certainly, former first round pick and perennial hope Nate Pearson is one guy the organization is hoping can carry his winter ball success over to next season. Julian Merryweather was lights out in AAA, but as we saw, the gap between that level and MLB is canyonesque for most players. Two other relievers in Buffalo’s standing-room only bullpen this season, lefty Brandon Eisert and changeup wizard Adrian Hernandez, are on the cusp of big league jobs, but don’t have the high velo, power arm profile, and one or both could be selected in the Rule 5 draft this week. Bowden Francis had his struggles this season, but seems to have found himself in Puerto Rico:

Beyond that, there is Hayden Juenger, a 6th rounder in 2021 who has rocketed through the system, finishing last season at Buffalo. It will not be a shock to see him in Toronto this season. Not far behind him is 2022 draftee TJ Brock, like Juenger a 6th rounder. Brock, who pitched in relief all four of his seasons at Ohio State, regularly touches 99:

Troy Watson, a converted starter, came back from Tommy John last season and sat in the high 90s at High A. Perhaps even his Vancouver teammate Dahian Santos, owner of the best slider in the system, may wind up as reliever down the road.

Juenger represents something of a shift in the Blue Jays player development history. He was in a bulk role this year, partially to build his arm up, and partly to see, as Cory Popham said in my last post, to see how his stuff held up over the course of a start. 17 of Juenger’s first 19 outings were in a starting role before he was moved to Buffalo’s bullpen in mid-July.

UPDATE: thanks to alert Twitter follower Tammy Rainey (@Tammy_Beth) who pointed out my omission of Hagen Danner. Converted to pitching last year after having been drafted as a catcher (Danner was a legendary two-way player as a high schooler), Danner missed much of the season with an elbow injury. He made up for lost time in Arizona this fall, and definitely has a shot at a big league job sooner rather than later.

Of course, none of these hopefuls are proven bat-missing, leverage guys at the big league level just yet. But it does appear that the Blue Jays are starting to assemble some bullpen depth in the minors just the same.

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Niall O’Donohoe, who continues to knock them out of The Nat with his pieces on the Vancouver Canadians, profiled Watson in September.

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All the best to Pat Tabler, who ends three decades of association with the Blue Jays after announcing he won’t return to the booth in 2023. I had a chance to briefly chat with Tabby in Dunedin in 2019, and he was gracious. Tabler very much looks like the multi-sport athlete he was in high school, and we should consider ourselves lucky to age half as well as he has.

With Dan Shulman returning on a full-time basis next year, and speculation that Buck Martinez is going to retire, the Blue Jays broadcast will have something of a different look to it. Buck and Dan were one of the best broadcast duo in the business before Martinez took over the Blue Jays managing job, and he was done a great disservice when he returned to the booth and Sportsnet moved him into more of a play-by-play role. It was one he was never truly comfortable in, and it showed. When he and Tabby would giggle like teenagers as Sportsnet tried to incorporate analytics into the broadcast, it was truly amateurish and embarrassing, to be honest. The return of Shulman helped to bring some professionalism back to the games, and both Martinez and Tabler improved as broadcasters as a result.

Speculation now abounds about a new sidekick for Shulman. Joe Siddall would be an obvious choice - he’s done an excellent job in his between-innings role. Caleb Joseph’s work on the radio side was very underrated last season; he really grew as a broadcaster. Some corners are calling for Ricky Romero, who I have to admit is entertaining as a podcaster; I’m not sure how well that will translate to calling games on a daily basis. Maybe the tall foreheads at Rogers will go outside the organization to bring in a new perspective.

As much as Buck and Pat kind of fit like your favourite pair of sweatpants at the end of a long workday, change was very overdue on this broadcast. I’m looking forward to it.

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Pardon my rumbly post-Covid voice, but if you’d like to hear more about Blue Jays prospects, give this episode of my friend Brent Cardy’s podcast. We also talked about my first book, On Account of Darkness: the Summer Ontario Baseball Broke the Colour Barrier (makes a great Christmas gift, available on Amazon and most ebook platforms), as well as my next baseball book, which will be published next spring.

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I don’t post this link all the time, but I thought I would do so today. I have lots of posts upcoming in the weeks to come as we get ready for the 2023 season, as I talk to people at various points around the Blue Jays system about the season just passed. Covid, the outrageous price of gas, and some family health issues limited my baseball travels in 2022; I’m already planning trips for next season, fingers crossed. If you were so inclined, even the smallest contribution would be greatly appreciated.

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