So Long Gaby……

Like many, I was at first taken by surprise by the Blue Jays trade of top prospect Gabriel Moreno and LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr to Arizona for OF/C Daulton Varsho.

But after some thought, this was all but an obvious move. And as someone who has followed prospects in the Toronto system for over a decade, I always have to be on guard against viewing trades solely through that lens. Even though I’ve been huge on Moreno since first watching him from feet away at the Phillies minor league complex in spring training of 2019, the more I think about this trade, the more I’ve come to accept it, and maybe even like it.

Let’s face it: it was a seller’s market for outfielders this fall. And by dealing Teoscar Hernandez the previous month, the Blue Jays didn’t necessarily paint themselves into a bit of a corner, but they certainly didn’t leave themselves a lot of wriggle room as the year came to a close. Arizona took advantage of the tight market by insisting on the top prospect in the system, a player that two years ago at this time they were likely viewing as a future core member. But times change; it certainly didn’t help that Moreno broke his thumb at the mid-point of the 2021 season (his pop just seemed to be coming back in the last month of this year). Likewise, missing a good chunk of big league spring training last year due to Visa issues robbed him of ABs, and more importantly, a chance to work with the MLB roster pitching staff.

It wouldn’t be a shock if the Blue Jays first offered Danny Jansen, and then Alejandro Kirk to make this trade happen. By the same token, it would not be a surprise if the D-backs held out for the highest-ceiling of the Toronto catching surplus, one whose years of control line up with their competitive window. For the Blue Jays part, handing over a pitching staff on a team that has post-season run aspirations was likely a big ask; Moreno’s timeline just didn’t necessarily match up with the Blue Jays’.

Daulton Varsho is who he is: a superb defender who can play all three OF spots, provide some power from the left side, steal the odd base, and fill in behind the plate. With Kirk on the roster, Manager John Schneider now has a late-inning pinch-running option. Varsho will not replace Hernandez or Gurriel’s production, but he will improve on their combined run prevention, and give Schneider some much-needed roster flexibility.

In the days following the trade, it was interesting to see the “experts” expound on Moreno’s supposed defensive limitations, including his game-calling. How they could make judgements on such a limited sample was beyond me - no one in the organization has suggested that’s a weakness. Perhaps that’s what makes them experts. Are there flaws in his game? Certainly, but most of them are beside the plate, not behind it, and at that, a .903 OPS in September for Buffalo, and this shot suggest that the power is coming:

Look, I’ll admit that watching a player you’d been following closely for almost four years, a guy who drew raves from people throughout the organization, is difficult. I have no doubt that Moreno will be an All Star long before this decade has come to a close. But part of the purpose of a farm system is to provide currency to make deals to fill holes on the roster. No one laments losing a future MVP and borderline Hall of Famer like Jeff Kent when two World Series banners hang in the Dome - ok, we didn’t exactly get David Cone back in return, but I trust I’ve made my point.

The future is now, and Kirk and Jansen (with support from Varsho) are here for the duration of Toronto’s competitive window - there are no big league catching prospects (at least in the short to mid-term future) in the system.

So, goodbye, Gaby. You were an excellent case study in player development. At just 19, you stood out to me that spring day in Florida four years ago with your athleticism and leadership behind the plate. All the best in AZ.

Thanks very much to my subscribers. This venture has proven far more successful than I could have hoped. I appreciate everyone’s patience while I learn this new medium. I’m now beginning to feel comfortable with it, and look forward to getting some interviews on here as we approach spring training. A spring trip to Vancouver, followed by a journey to Buffalo (Erie was the preferred destination, but New Hampshire doesn’t play there this year), with accompanying notes will be forthcoming. As always, I prefer to keep this newsletter free of charge. I have considered a subscription model many times, but I think the current delivery method suits me just fine. If you feel so inclined to help defray the few costs I encounter in putting his together, that would be greatly appreciated: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/dmfoxF

Happy New Year, everyone! 2023 is going to be great.

DF