Some Thoughts Heading into the Rule 5.

They’re not necessarily facing a huge 40-man roster in advance to the Rule 5 deadline coming up this week, but the Blue Jays need to find room for a couple of prospects (the roster sits at 39 at the moment).

The process of creating space began last week with Tayler Saucedo being claimed by the Mets on outright waivers, and Casey Lawrence being assigned to Buffalo after clearing those same waivers.

I don’t have any insight into what the Blue Jays might do, but I think their decision process stacks up like this:

Locks to Be Added

Yosver Zulueta

Orelvis Martinez

Addison Barger

Gabriel Martinez

Zulueta, owner of the best fastball in the system, has to top this list. Even though the Jays plan to continue to stretch him out as a starter next season, there would be a lineup of teams willing to use him in a bullpen role. Even though Orelvis had his struggles (he did hit 30 HRs, just the same), it would be easy to see a rebuilding team stick him at 3B and live with his development at the big league level.

Some analysts thought Gabriel Martinez would spend the season relatively hidden at Low A, but the team sent him to Vancouver (at the tender age of 19), and appear to be ready to spend an option year letting him continue his development next year, similar to the path they chose with Leo Jimenez. And perhaps he’s a long shot to break camp with the team next spring, but you have to think Barger might be in competition with Cavan Biggio for a big league job.

On the Bubble

Spencer Horwitz

Brandon Eisert

Adrian Hernandez

You could make a case for all three of these players, but none are a slam dunk to me, starting with Horwitz. Rule 5 roster freeze time means that teams have to look at their existing 40-man roster, compare it piece-by-piece with the R5 eligible players in the system, and balance that with an evaluation of whether or not they think players not protected will go through the draft unclaimed, or at least returned (see Romano, Jordan). Part of that analysis means looking at prospects and deciding if there’s a place for them.

Certainly, Horwitz’ climb through the minors has been impressive. Always a disciplined hitter going back to college, he eliminated a bat waggle in 2021 that allowed him to be on time more often with his barrel, resulting in a dramatic increase in exit velo, and a Northwest League-record 27 game hitting streak.

Both Horwitz has his limitations - he’s a below average defender at 1st, and while the organization has given him some limited playing time in LF, it’s hard to see him there as a big leaguer just yet. His AAA stats were not as impressive as his AA numbers this season as well (.724 OPS at Buffalo, .930 at New Hampshire). He’s accomplished a lot for a 24th round pick, and he’s a left-handed bat, but at 25, there’s no projection left.

Hernandez garnered attention last year as well as in 2022, mainly because of his devilishly good change up, a pitch hitters can’t seem to track even when they know it’s coming. Hernandez spent six weeks on the IL this summer, and when he came back he got hit fairly hard (11.57 ERA) in September. The Blue Jays would like to see him add more velocity on his fastball to make the separation between it and his out pitch even greater. Is he a risk to be taken if left exposed? Certainly, but in this day and age of bullpen guys who throw 95+, it seems like a pitcher below that threshold is something of a long shot.

Eisert is also a guy who doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he has a deceptive delivery, pounds the strike zone, and gets guys out. When I asked Joe Sclafani last month about players beyond the top prospects who caught his eye this season, Eisert was one of the first names he mentioned.

Longshots

Adam Kloffenstein

Luis Quiñones

Rainer Nunez

Davis Schneider

Jimmy Robbins

Jimmy Burnette

There are a few other R5 eligible players in the system, but they’re not in the conversation.

Kloff has struggled the past two seasons, the big inning more often than not doing him in. But he can also have frames where he’s dominant, which had me wondering by mid-season when the organization might consider a switch to the bullpen. Certainly, with his frame and his mix of pitches (when he commands them), he has the profile of a back of the rotation innings eater, but one can’t help but wonder with his repertoire and number of hitters he faces pared down what he might be like.

I was in Vancouver in 2019 for an extended family function, but my timing sucked - the C’s were on the road, followed by the NWL All Star break. I was fortunate enough to have a team employee give me a tour of The Nat, which included a viewing of Alek Manoah’s size 17.5 cleats in the C’s locker room. I asked the employee, someone who had been around long enough to know, which player(s) looked like a future big leaguer among the occupants of that room. Manoah was a no-brainer, but the other name he gave was a surprise - that of Quiñones, a 34th round JuCo pick pitching brilliantly in a relief role. Quiñones missed the first 70 games of the season when play resumed in 2021 due to a PED violation; the organization, desperate to speed up his development due to that missed time, had him in a starting role, one he kept in AA this season. But while his mid-90s fastball, a bowling ball of a pitch that’s tough to square up, allowed him to fan 91 hitters in 71 innings, he too struggled with his command, walking 50. Of all the guys exposed to the draft, he might be the most likely to be taken by a team willing to kick the tires on him in a spring training relief role.

As for the others - Robbins is a great story, coming back after Tommy John, Burnette has a lights out fastball, and Nunez is an up-and-comer, but is probably too far away for most teams to consider. Schneider is a great story, but the Jays already have a couple of players just like him on the 40.