The 12 Days of Prospects

Season’s Greetings, subscribers and other gentle readers.

My gift to you (besides this newsletter being free) is a dozen articles about the top prospects in the organization. Given this busy time of year, they’re not going to be lengthy, statistics-filled analytical pieces, but rather shorter, qualitative articles with overall impressions gathered from many years of watching the players in question.

And what better place to begin with than a former top prospect?

In all honestly, 2022 was a season Nate Pearson would probably like to forget.

He came down with mononucleosis in March, and then suffered a right lat strain in a rehab start with Buffalo in June.

By the time he had regained his health in September, there wasn’t enough time for him to join the big league pen for the playoffs.

Pearson did have a successful stint in the Dominican Winter League. Blue Jays MiLB Pitching Development Coordinator Cory Popham told us a few weeks ago that, “we’re quite happy with how he did - he threw what we wanted him to.” What the club wanted him to do was to get some extra innings, and pitch in a leverage role. Reports had him routinely sitting 97-99 with his fastball. Pearson fanned 16 hitters in 12 innings in as many appearances, riving up only 5 hits an a single unearned run. Getting LIDOM hitters out is one thing; getting MLB hitters out is another. As is, unfortunately for Pearson, staying healthy

At this point, it’s time to think of Pearson not as a starter, but as a bullpen guy. Baseball America, in ranking him the Blue Jays 10th prospect at the end of the season, said it fairly well:

Pearson is physically imposing at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds with broad shoulders and an extra-large build. His large frame and natural strength translate to easy 99-104 mph fastballs, and he pairs his fastball with an above-average, hard slider in the upper 80s with late horizontal bite. He also has an average power curveball in the mid 80s with 11-to-5 shape and two-plane break and a firm changeup that is a fringe-average pitch. His changeup used to be a bigger part of his arsenal but has backed up in recent years. Pearson has increasingly pitched in relief due to his injuries and fringy control and is likely to remain in the bullpen. He primarily focuses on his fastball and slider as a reliever, while mixing in an occasional curveball against lefthanded hitters…..his raw stuff could allow him to flourish as a high-leverage reliever if he can stay healthy.

It seems like we’ve been let down time and time again by Pearson. The prospect hype has not matched the performance, at least up to this point. You don’t necessarily think of Pearson in these terms, but 2023 is his final option year. That certainly doesn’t mean that time is running out for the big righthander, but it definitely means that the future is now. This is a make-or-break season coming up for him, and transitioning to a relief role is not an easy process, both mentally and physically. But if Pearson can stay healthy and harness his command, he could help fill a rather sizeable void in the Blue Jays ‘pen.