The Blue Jays and the Latest Farm System Rankings

A pair of farm system rankings came out today, and not surprisingly, the Blue Jays are in the bottom half. Keith Law of the Athletic had Toronto in 17th place overall, while Kylie McDaniel of ESPN had the Blue Jays system ranked 23rd.

Certainly, the Toronto minor league chain has hit a bit of a down moment. Gone from the Baseball America’s 2022 pre-season Top 100 are Gabriel Moreno and Nate Pearson, while Orelvis Martinez’ struggles last year dropped him off the list as well. Ricky Tiedemann is the only Blue Jay on the Top 100 for now, and that’s not likely to change until later this season.

But it’s not all necessarily doom-and-gloom for Blue Jays fans.

Yes, the loss of Moreno stings a bit, but there are a few lower-level names who might make their way into Top 100 country with a strong 2023 season, and help for the big club from the system is well on its way.

Top 100 lists do not tend to look favourably upon relief pitchers, but that’s where the best chances for immediate impact are for the Blue Jays. It’s reasonable to predict that Hayden Juenger and Yosver Zulueta will make their big league debuts this season, the former most certainly, and the latter likely. I’m even hearing more and more from people in the organization that if all goes well for Tiedemann this year and his innings are at an acceptable level in August, we might see him in the Toronto bullpen down the stretch - there is little doubt he can get big league hitters out right now, although I’m certainly fine with the high performance and player development staff proceeding cautiously for one more season. We all know about Adrian Hernandez and his other-worldly changeup; if not for shoulder soreness last season, he may have been in Toronto. Reports suggest he’s healthy, and if he can add a bit more velo, you have to like his big league chances.

But those are not the only names who could find themselves in the Blue Jays bullpen this year. TJ Brock will likely start the year at AA (possibly in an opener role similar to Juenger), and if he can harness his command - watch out. If you want some longshots, try Ben Baggett (love his story - more coming on that), or even Dahian Santos, owner of the best slider in the system, who is likely destined for the bullpen one day.

On the position player side, Addison Barger seems poised to contribute to the Blue Jays at some point this season. Barger was the best position player in the system by a large margin last season, although he did struggle against elite pitching in the Arizona Fall League. It may have been fatigue, but he may need a bit more AAA seasoning. Barger may not profile as a regular, but he certainly has the skills on both sides of the ball to impact the club as a super-utility guy. Spencer Horwitz was added to the 40 along with Barger last fall, and while I may not be as high on him as some, Horwitz is a much-needed lefty bat with excellent strike zone judgement. As I’ve written several times, Orelvis may benefit from being sandwiched between the two in Buffalo’s batting order; I’m not ready to give up on him just yet.

But it’s at the lower levels where we see some promise of good things to come. Expectations for Brandon Barriera may be a bit on the high side, given the path Tiedemann took last year, but it will be exciting to see how he does this season. Same for Tucker Tolman, who drew raves from the player devo staff. Fellow draftees Cade Doughty, Josh Kasevich, and Michael Turconi may not have the projection that Barriera and Tolman have, but I fully expect one of that trio will become a serviceable big league player. Then there’s the recently-signed Enmanuel Bonilla, the 4th-ranked IFA this signing period. His time will come, but we’re talking two years at least.

Mark Shapiro has spoken in the past about having waves of prospects ready for prime time (or, as in the case of Moreno, to be used as currency to strengthen the MLB roster); perhaps we’re just in a bit of a trough at the moment. I will leave the ranking of the farm systems to the experts like Law and McDaniel, but rating the Toronto minor league group of prospects in the bottom half for now seems about right.

That may not be the case in a few months.