Who are the Next Top 100 Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays are down to just one player (Ricky Tiedemann at 31) in Baseball America’s Top 100, down from 3 a year ago. Gabriel Moreno has moved on to the Diamondbacks, Nate Pearson completed his tumble out of those rankings with an injury/illness-plagued 2022, and Orelvis Martinez just swung at too many pitches out of the zone to reclaim his place on the list.

So, who are some candidates to break through when BA revises their list later this season? Perhaps the top candidate is Yosver Zulueta, who, according to BA’s Geoff Pontes, just missed out on the most recent Top 100 because of some concerns over his command. He could be an addition the revised list later in the season; while the Blue Jays will continue to develop him as a starter, there’s always a chance he could be in Toronto’s bullpen by that time.

But the BA list is about upside and projection more than anything, and there is no one in the system who checks those boxes quite like Brandon Barriera. In fact, along with Zulueta and Addison Barger, Barriera received some votes from BA staff for the Top 100. A lot of eyes will be on Barriera when he makes his pro debut, whether it’s with Dunedin in April/May or the Complex Jays in June, hitters will likely be overmatched by his electric fastball. While his 2023 will be an innings-limited campaign, if Barriera lives up the reports we’ve seen, he should find his way into the back end of the list by the end of the season.

Beyond Barriera and perhaps Zulueta, Orelvis could find himself back among the games top prospects with a better showing this season. While the Blue Jays like to challenge their young players with aggressive assignments, one can’t help but wonder if the player development staff aren’t kicking themselves by not starting Martinez at Vancouver last year. As one of the youngest and least-experience players in the Eastern League, Martinez was somewhat in over his head against the more veteran AA pitchers. He did set a New Hampshire HR record, and hit 14 long balls in April and May combined, but EL pitchers adjusted to him with a steady diet of breaking stuff away and fastballs on the inside corner, and that had him guessing and lunging for much of the next two months. We all know what the analysts say about the myth of protection in the batting order, but he hit almost 100 points better with runners on than he did with the bases empty (.252 vs .153). That’s not deep analysis by any means, but it offers hope that with maybe Barger and Spencer Horwitz  surrounding him in Buffalo’s lineup (assuming Orelvis doesn’t repeat a half season in AA; I wouldn’t blame the Blue Jays for that assignment), Martinez will see some better pitches. Certainly, his strike zone judgment needs to improve considerably, but Orelvis showed some signs in the last moth of 2023 that he was seeing pitches better and chasing less. Having been added to the 40, perhaps the time isn’t right now for Orelvis, but his development clock is ticking.

If Barger continues to trend like he did in his breakout 2022, a place somewhere around the middle to back end of the next version of the list could be his. Barger was the best offensive player in the system by a considerable margin last year; his super utility profile may hold him back a bit. But he’s a left-handed bat who can play 3 infield positions well, and I feel relatively certain Barger will be a big leaguer.

A darkhorse candidate to crack the Top 100 is Gabriel Martinez. After having been brought along slowly, Martinez had a breakthrough 2022, posting a .783 OPS at two levels. While there’s a lot to be optimistic about, Martinez is something of a divisive prospect. Most love the bat, but question if he will develop more than average power, and concerns about his ultimate landing spot on defence have him as more of a peripheral Top 100 at this point. It will be interesting to see if the Blue Jays send him to New Hampshire out of spring training like they did with Orelvis, or send him back to Vancouver for a little bit more High A seasoning. That he was exposed to the Rule 5 and wasn’t taken underscores that split in the scouting community.

If you want a real outside-the-box candidate, reliever T.J. Brock might be your man. BA tends to shy away from bullpen guys for fairly obvious reasons, but considering the jump Hayden Juenger made last season, Brock might merit consideration. There are some command issues, but Brock is like Juenger with more velo.

We’re probably looking at 2024 (at the earliest) as a more realistic timeline for prospects like Tucker Toman and the recently-signed Enmanuel Bonilla, if they trend along the lines suggested by their scouting reports.