Who’s the Next Blue Jays Breakout Prospect?

It’s hard to recall a season with as many breakout starting pitching performances in the Blue Jays system as we witnessed in 2022.

Ricky Tiedemann, Yosver Zulueta, and Dahian Santos all entered last season with high expectations, but in many ways exceeded them. Toss in Jimmy Robbins, and you have a quartet of starters who all showed big league rotation promise.

While there may not be as many breakout prospects this year, there are still several to keep an eye on.

Brandon Barriera

The first round pick has a chip on his shoulder, a trait the Blue Jays seem to covet, after 22 teams passed on him last summer. The most obvious comp for Barriera is Tiedemann, the only difference between the two the fact that Tiedemann had a year of junior college experience prior to turning pro. And for that reason alone, there’s a temptation to pump the brakes slightly on Barriera’s expectations this year.

Barriera was touching 99 at Instructs, facing live hitters for the first time since shutting things down in advance of the draft in May. He should make his pro debut sometime between the anniversary of his last high school start and the opening of the Complex League in early June, and like Tiedemann, his innings will be carefully monitored. It’s probably not reasonable to see Barriera pitch at three levels this season, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for him to finish the season at High A.

Michael Dominguez

Dominguez had a mini breakthrough (104K in 80 IP at two levels) last season, and this could be the season the 2019 15th rounder cracks the organization’s Top 20. Dominguez mixes a mid 90s fastball with a high spin rate slider, one of the best in the system:

His slider is truly an impressive offering, a pitch Dominguez can consistently command. He will throw almost as many sliders as he will four seamers, and the pitches complement each other well. Dominguez also throws a decent change. Perhaps he’ll wind up as a bullpen guy with that primary combination, but he’ll continue to start this season. Word from the organization is that Dominguez matured a great deal this season, and has bought into the development plan for him.

Trenton Wallace

Like Dominguez, Wallace had a minor breakthrough in 2022 (2.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 110 Ks in 80 IP) at two levels, and should continue to shine in 2023.

Wallace is a strike-throwing machine, offering some deception in his delivery from the left side:

Wallace had an outstanding June with Dunedin (27Ks in 17 innings, 0 runs and only 3 hits allowed) - the organization felt he was robbed of their third straight Florida State League player or pitcher of the month award. Wallace’s slider is more of a sweepy pitch than Dominguez’; that low arm slot helps hide it from hitters. Similarly, even though he’s still developing velo, his crossfire delivery and extension helps his fastball play up. Like Dominguez, there is a chance Wallace winds up in the bullpen, but he’ll continue to be developed as a starter in 2023.

Irv Carter

It seems like we’ve been waiting quite a while for the 2021 5th rounder to flash some of that upside we read about prior to the draft.

Carter has been brought along slowly, and didn’t make his pro debut until the Complex League opened. He struggled over the first two months, put then put everything together in two August outings, allowing only two hits, a walk and no runs over 10 innings, fanning 11. That earned Carter a promotion down the street to Dunedin, and while his results were somewhat mixed, he put together a strong foundation to build his 2023 season on:

Of this group, Carter has perhaps the highest relief risk. His development this season will very much be about developing a third pitch.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at some potential relief breakout prospects