Who’s the Next Blue Jays Breakout Prospect?

Hayden Juenger seemingly came out of nowhere last season to become a reliever on the cusp of a big league job, following in the tracks of Adrian Hernandez the season before.

Trying to predict breakout performances from lower-level bullpen guys is a difficult task, but based on what we saw towards the end of last season, there are a couple of candidates who may find themselves within shouting distance of a big league job a year or so from now. There are guys in the system currently starting like Yosver Zulueta and Dahian Santos who may be moved to the pen one day and bump some relievers out, but here are a few arms who have a legitimate shot at the bigs one day:

T.J. Brock

Juenger, a 6th round pick in 2021, was given an aggressive assignment to start 2022, pitching as an opener at AA. Brock, drafted in the same round from Ohio State last summer, may follow a similar path.

Brock cuts an imposing figure on the mound, and lights up the radar gun:

If there is a knock against Brock, it’s that he can lose the strike zone, driving his pitch count up, and limiting his effectiveness. When Brock is on, he sets up hitters well with his fastball, and gets swings and misses with the slider. The Blue Jays no doubt will try to build his innings up as they did with Juenger, and it won’t be a surprise to see Brock open the year at New Hampshire as well.

Troy Watson

Watson entered the 2022 season about to return from Tommy John, and ended it throwing 100 mph+ for Vancouver. Like Brock, Watson has a slider that dodges barrels; hitters gearing up for his heater can sometimes look foolish:

Converted to a relief role this year, Watson (a 15th round pick in 2018) spent time in the Arizona Fall League, and well, the results were not quite as flattering. Just the same, Northwest League hitters were overmatched by Watson’s high octane stuff, and it will be very interesting to see what he does at the next level.

Eliander Alcalde

He doesn’t light up the radar gun, but Alcalde’s name has come up several times in post-season conversations with Blue Jays staff.

The Stoman-sized Alcalde also features a slider that gets lots of chases and barrel dodges:

Like Hernandez, Alcalde throws a changeup that flashes plus:

And it’s worth noticing that the above performance was against a very good Mets Florida State League affiliate, who beat out Dunedin for the FSL title. Alcalde’s performance in a September call up to the D-Jays received considerable notice throughout the organization. He should start the season in Vancouver.

Given the volatility of relievers, there’s no guarantee that one or more of these guys takes a step backwards this season. Getting guys to chase in A ball is one thing; doing so at the higher levels is quite another. And perhaps there will be some arms (there were about a half dozen guys from the Dominican complex that had whiff rates in the 30s) who will seemingly come out of nowhere in 2023. But above are three guys who make that step closer to the bigs this year.